Something’s gotta give.
Monday’s National Championship features one of the most compelling match-ups in sports: historic offense vs. elite defense. This is the first time we’ve had a top-three offense play a top-three defense since 2013.
The top three offense that year was the Michigan Wolverines, who were bested by Louisville’s top-rated defense (until that title was later vacated…sorry Rick). Five years later, the script has flipped, with Michigan’s third ranked defense stacking up against Villanova’s historically-acclaimed offense.
The Wildcats have the second most efficient offense on record. They have scored 85 or more points in twice as many games as they haven’t, and enter tonight’s game having won their last nine games by double digits, beating their tournament opponents by an average margin of 18 points. The Cats are ranked in the top five in threes attempted and three-point efficiency, averaged more points than any team in the country this season (87), made more threes than any team ever, and finished top-20 in assists per game.
They are the Golden State Warriors of college ball, if Zaza could also pull it out and shoot from the perimeter the way that Omari Spellman and Eric Paschall can. They have not three, not four, not five, but seven guys who can beat you with perimeter shooting, and are for all intents and purposes one of the best college offenses ever. Their 66 tournament threes is unmatched by any team in the event’s history, and you have to assume the figure will climb after tonight after their 18 made three pointers in Saturday’s semi-final vs. Kansas set a Final Four record.
Villanova is a well-oiled machine. Fueled by experienced talent, they are very familiar with winning. The Cats have won more games in the past four seasons than any team in history, and feature multiple players on the current roster who were crucial to the 2016 title run. This time around, these guys are older, wiser, and stronger. Nova looks to capture its second title in three seasons.
Standing in their way is the Michigan Wolverines, who have held opponents to just 58.6 points per game in the tournament. Villanova hasn’t scored fewer than 64 points in a game this season. The key to this game will be whether or not a great defense like Michigan’s stands a chance against an even greater offense like Villanova’s. There may be some evidence suggesting it might.
While Nova was twelfth in the country in 3-point attempt percentage and eleventh in 3-point shooting percentage, Michigan was fifth in preventing 3-point attempts. This strength showed up in Saturday’s victory over Loyola-Chicago, where the Wolverines held a team full of perimeter shooters to ten attempts and just one three-point basket. Over the entire tournament, Michigan has held its five opponents to 18-of-75 (24%) shooting threes, with no team putting up more than 17 attempts. Villanova will surely challenge this trend. They have already set 12 program records for their offensive prowess this season, many baring a direct connection to their ability to find three-point shots at will.
And yet, tonight’s 6.5-point underdogs can look to three teams for assurance that they might have what it takes to take down the top cats. Two of these squads are Providence and St. John’s, who showed that the best way to discombobulate Villanova is through tough perimeter defense when they held the Cats to a combined 11-for-53 shooting from long range in their upsets. The third team is my beloved Butler Bulldogs, who have beaten Nova twice in the past two seasons. The Wolverines’ playing style and strengths are similar to Butler’s, and they have enough shooters to get hot like Butler did in its 101-93 victory over Nova this past December. Two games ago against Texas A&M, Michigan had its hottest shooting performance of the year, setting an NCAA tournament record with eight players hitting threes. If they replicate this tonight they stand more than just a chance against the Wildcats.
You could make a strong case that the 2018 National Championship game features the game’s two best coaches. Both John Belein of Michigan and Jay Wright of Villanova have a knack for player development, preaching the kind of fundamentals and character traits that build lasting success. Belein’s teams have won the Big Ten tournament in back-to-back seasons, and with a win tonight Michigan would become only the third team since 1978 to win a national championship with zero McDonald’s All-Americans and zero five-star recruits. He knows how to have his players locked in on the elements that matter, and is willing and able to adapt to his roster as each season turns over. Year in and year out his guys have a toughness and grit that is unmatched across the nation. They have no panic, and have proven time and time again that they can chip away at leads in order to stay in it during crunch time. After his recent burst of post season success, no coach is more accomplished in recent seasons than Jay Wright, who has built a program of humble, mutliple-year players who buy in to the team mentality and a style of basketball that is as beautiful to watch as it is lethal to face. Jay Wright’s teams in recent years have demonstrated an uncanny ability to hold on to leads from the start of games.
Omari Spellman, Eric Paschall, Jalen Brunson, Mikal Bridges, Phil Booth, and Donte DiVincenzo pose six perplexing challenges for Michigan tonight. But the story of the game could become Mo Wagner, whose infectiously fierce play, ability to draw defensive help with every touch, and primetime star-power could be the catalyst for a big night for Big Blue. In his dominant performance against Loyola, Wagner became the third player in Final Four history, joining Larry Bird and Akeem Olajuwon, to have 20 points and 15 rebounds in a game. He’ll have to be this special again tonight.
Villanova could cap off its unprecedented run, or the Wolverines could make history of their own. Either way, we’re in for a treat.
