March Madness: Perfect In All of Its Flaws
The NCAA tournament is unlike any spectacle in sports: 68 teams competing in a single-elimination format where fortune, momentum, and contrasting styles collide. Played out a thousand times, there would be a thousand outcomes. The only constant is madness.
There’s more to this tournament than meets the eye. No moment of joy and chaos can ever stand alone; it is a byproduct of rippling forces and moments that come before it: starting with the season tip-off in November, continuing through conference championships, and extending all the way through to the final game of the Big Dance.
Consider the case of UMBC. Before the Golden Retrievers shocked the world as the first 16-seed to upset a 1-seed, they qualified for the Big Dance by stunning a superior Vermont team on an incredible buzzer beater (sadly, they lost to the Catamounts on Saturday in a rematch of last year’s game. Will Vermont make a run this time around?).
With 24 hours until Selection Sunday, the fate of the 2019 NCAA tournament is already being written. What effect will bid-stealer Saint Mary’s victory over Gonzaga have moving forward? Which teams capable of making runs will fall short of qualifying because of a shrinking bubble? Might conference tournament losses from potential 1-seeds Gonzaga and Virginia end up paving more fortuitous paths instead? Dozens of other ‘what ifs’ will haunt some teams and reward others.
Although compelling in its own way, one thing that stood out to me about this year’s regular season was a lack of close finishes. Looking back, I can’t pinpoint more than a few moments where a team hit a buzzer beater of significance. Perhaps the best finishes were being saved for last, as the conference tournaments have already outshined the regular season in that respect. On Friday alone, we saw 15 games games end within 3 points or go to overtime. There will surely be more to come.
In the 2018-2019 season many of the decade’s most prolific teams including Duke, Kentucky, North Carolina, and Michigan State continued playing at their elite level while other blue bloods like Villanova, Arizona, and Kansas struggled to perform up to their programs’ standards. A handful of teams from non-power conferences (see Houston, Nevada, Buffalo, and Gonzaga) lingered within the top 15 for the majority of this season while Power Six bubble teams like Syracuse, Clemson, NC State, Baylor, Oklahoma, Georgetown, Ohio State, Oregon, Florida, and Alabama will all sweat out the bid process with at least 13 losses on their résumé.
In contrast to the alarmingly high loss totals from many power conference bubble teams, there’s a long list of teams from conferences you hardly ever think about that won at least 24 games this year. Here are some of the notables:
Vermont Catamounts (America East): 27-6
Stony Brook Seawolves (America East): 24-8
Houston Cougars (AAC): 30-2
VCU Rams (A-10): 25-7
Davidson Wildcats (A-10): 24-8
Liberty Flames (Atlantic Sun): 28-6
Lipscomb Bisons (Atlantic Sun): 25-7
Montana Grizzlies (Big Sky): 25-8
UC Irvine (Big West): 29-5
Hofstra (CAA): 27-7
Charleston Cougars (CAA): 24-9
Old Dominion (C-USA): 25-8
Northern Kentucky (Horizon): 26-8
Buffalo (Mid-American): 30-3
Toledo (Mid-American): 25-7
Drake (Missouri Valley): 24-9
Nevada (Mountain West): 29-4
Utah State (Mountain West): 27-6
Murray State (Ohio Valley): 27-4
Belmont (Ohio Valley): 26-5
Jacksonville State (Ohio Valley): 24-9
Colgate (Patriot): 24-10
Wofford (SoCon): 29-4
UNC-Greensboro (SoCon): 28-6
Furman (SoCon): 25-7
East Tennessee State (SoCon): 24-9
Abilene Christin (Southland): 26-6
South Dakota State (Summit): 24-8
Texas State (Sun Belt): 24-8
New Mexico State (WAC): 29-4
Utah Valley (WAC): 24-9
I don’t care what conference you played in – if you win 24 games in Division 1, you’re a good team. I pray that the selection committee recognizes this tomorrow.
A major reason why March Madness has only grown in parody over the years has to do with the clash between majors and mid-majors in the tournament. While Gothiaths continue pumping out one-and-done players whose talent far exceeds their experience, the Davids bring a slew of seasoned veterans whose composure wisdom gives them more than just a fighter’s chance.
While elite freshman stars like Zion Williamson, RJ Barrett, Cam Reddish, Ja Morrant, Keldon Johnson, and Coby White have certainly made their mark, many of the most important and talented players in college basketball are older, which I find to be extremely refreshing. For example, in Sports Illustrated’s list of the Top 50 Players in College Basketball, 34 of them were upperclassmen. So much for a one-and-done league.
Watch out for these seniors come tournament time:
Ethan Happ – Wisconsin
Carsen Edwards – Purdue
Grant Williams and Admiral Schofield – Tennessee
Cam Johnson and Luke Maye – North Carolina
Justin Robinson – Virginia Tech
Kyle Guy and Ty Jerome – Virginia
Cassius Winson and Matt McQuaid – Michigan State
Jordan Caroline, Caleb Martin, and Cody Martin – Nevada
Shamorie Ponds – Saint John’s
Myells Powell – Seton Hall
Dylan Windler – Belmont
Fletcher Magee – Wofford
Phil Booth – Villanova
Corey Davis Jr. – Houston
Sam Merrill – Utah State
Jarron Cumberland – Cincinnati
CJ Masisinburg – Buffalo
Matisse Thybulle – Washington
Before we get lost brackets and betting, let’s take a look back at some of this season’s most notable storylines through Championship Week:
One-bid leagues yield multiple tournament births: This is one of the most interesting developments for this year’s field. Historically one-bid leagues like the Atlantic Sun, SoCon, Ohio Valley, CAA, C-USA, and WCC could all send more than one team dancing this year. Bubble teams beware.
All ACC Final Four?: Per usual, the Atlantic Coast Conference was dominant this season. With Virginia, Duke, and UNC all finishing towards the top of the rankings this season, we could see 3 teams from this conference earn a one-seed. Not to mention quality teams like Florida State and Virginia Tech lingering close behind. Could see an all-ACC Final Four? That’s crazy! So crazy it just might work…
AAC Takes A Big Leap: One conference not enough people are talking about is the American Athletic. Historically a 2 or 3 bid league, we could see as many as 6 make the field of 68 this year. Atop this list is the feel-good story Houston Cougars, who have already won 30 games this season. They are legit.
Don’t Sleep On The Big 12: The Big 12 has been a fist fight all season long, and I can think of nothing more symbolic of this conference’s stiff competition than the West Virginia Mountaineers, who finished list in the league, making a conference tournament run and shocking #7 Texas Tech on Friday. Unfortunately their luck ran out the next day when they were crushed by Kansas, who failed to win at least a share of their conference title for the first time in 15 years.
And the nation’s longest winning streak goes to… UC Irvine of the Big West Conference.
Dancing for the first time in school history: Gardner-Webb of the Big South (sadly it will be a short stint).
The slipper didn’t fit this time: Loyola-Chicago, the darling of last year’s tournament, failed to reach the Big Dance the year after they made it all the way to the Final Four.
Mid-American Team to the Final Four? It could happen. The Buffalo Bulls are legit. They start five seniors and already upset De’Andre Ayton and a talented Arizona team in last year’s tourney.
Be Afraid, Be Very Afraid of the Mountain West: Nevada is final four good and two other giant killers, Utah State and San Diego State, will look to make deep runs as well.
A bright star in a dim league: In an off-year for the Pac-12, Washington surprised everyone as the darling of their conference.
The SEC is better than it’s ever been: 3 teams (Kentucky, Tennessee, and LSU) finished in the top ten and 7 teams make go dancing.
SoCon is where my mind is: The Southern Conference had won of the most successful seasons of any mid major conference. Wofford, UNC-Greensboro, Furman, and ETSU are all legit tourney candidates.
And the award for the best school you didn’t know existed goes to… Abilene Christian from the Southland conference. They won 26 games, for Christ sake!
So much for the Jackrabbits returning to the dance: South Dakota State, the team everyone expected to make it out of the Summit League, was dethroned by Western Illinois in the quarterfinals. South Dakota State won 24 games while Western Illinois only won 10.
Zion Williamson didn’t miss a beat returning from injury: He went 13-13 in his first game back against Syracuse and followed that with a dominant performance in a gutsy win vs. rival UNC.
Saint Mary’s delivered the first shocking upset of March by defeating the number one team in the country, Gonzaga.
Although they are understandably overshadowed by the NCAA tournament itself, the final two days of Championship Week offer plenty of drama and excitement on their own. We’ll see superpowers face-off and Cinderellas emerge as the story arc of March continues to develop. Fasten your seatbelts, ladies and gents, and get ready for one hell of a ride.