The Contenders

 

Duke Blue Devils

You don’t need to know much about college basketball to see that Duke is the most talented team in the country. They start four future NBA first-rounders (Zion Williamson, RJ Barrett, Cam Reddish, and Tre Jones) and only lost twice when all of these players were healthy. Ranking in the top six in both offensive and defensive efficiency, this is a group that can build a 10-point lead in the blink of an eye – something we could expect to see happen on more than a few occasions in the tournament.

Zion is a truly unique specimen: a 6’7″ 285-pound forward with guard-like handles and shooting, ballerina-like footwork and agility, and a sheer level of strength unmatched by anyone on the collegiate level. The second coming of LeBron James has arrived. Zion will be the first to say, however, that Tre Jones is Duke’s glue. The brother of NBA player Tyus Jones, Tre has a vast knowledge of the game. He is one of the best point guards in the country with elite vision, handling, and maturity. He’s also one of the best defenders on the collegiate level, which is a huge asset for his team because his steals lead to easy transition buckets.

Although Duke is the heavy favorite to cut down the nets in April, they are not without weaknesses. Poor free-throw and three-point shooting could lead to their demise.

 

Michigan State Spartans

Michigan State had every reason to fall short of expectations this year, but never seemed to get the memo. The Spartans’ two best players from last season (Jaren Jackson and Miles Bridges) became lottery picks in the NBA draft and the 2018-2019 team was plagued with recurring injuries. They were forced to play without their regular starting five for 24 games this season but still managed to win a share of the Big Ten title along with their conference tournament by besting an ultra-talented Michigan squad (for the third time this season).

Through all of this turmoil, State had perhaps the only people that mattered: Tom Izzo and Cassius Winston. Izzo is the only big ten coach to have seen such sustained success over the past 20+ seasons and knows what it takes to be the last team standing. Part of that formula involves continuously grooming the next leader and star player, which in this year’s edition of the Spartans is Cassius Winston. Winston is sneaky good – he’s way faster than he looks and makes everyone around him better in a seemingly effortless manner.

With forward Nick Ward back from injury, the Spartans now have five players outside of Winston that can also take over a game at any point. Look for senior sharp-shooting guard Matt McQuaid to come up big for Sparty in the Dance. Scary to think we probably haven’t seen this team at their best yet.

 

Gonzaga Bulldogs

Gonzaga is exceptionally balanced, with five players that can take over on any given night (Rui Hachimura, Brandon clarke, Zach Norvell, Josh Perkins, and Kevin Tillie) and a slew of role players as well. This would have been a deep and dominant team without the off-season addition of San Jose State transfer Brandon Clarke, but with him it’s now straight up unfair. Inside threats like Tillie and Hachimura have given teams no answer for Brandon Clarke. The Bulldogs play fast, move the ball beautifully, and kill you in fast break points. They are the highest scoring team in the nation. While prolific on offense, their defense is shaky at times. Playing in a weaker conference left this flaw relatively unexposed, but we’ll see what happens come tournament time. I don’t see them winning if an opponent can keep the game in the 60s. But then again, they are the only team to have been Duke on a neutral floor this season, so that’s gotta be worth something.

 

Michigan Wolverines

The Wolverines have one of the best defenses in the country, but they struggled on this end for the middle part of the season before trending in the right direction this past month. Adding a healthy Charles Matthews back into the fold has made all of the difference for these guys on both ends of the floor. Another key player for this year’s squad has proven to be Iggy Brazdeikus, a stretch forward who plays with the passion and style of last year’s star Mo Wagner. Xavier Simpson, Jordan Poole, and Jon Teske round out an extremely experienced and talented starting five, but other than role player Isaiah Livers this is not a deep team. Regardless, Michigan is sure to be a tough out in this year’s tournament, just as they have been in recent years. John Belein continues to be one of the best coaches in the country and seems to always find a way to have new players assume familiar roles amongst a winning culture.

 

Virginia Cavaliers

Think Villanova, but just a few years behind in their evolution. For more a decade, Nova consistently earned a top 3 seed in the tournament only to come up short on the biggest stage. All of that changed in the 2015-2016 season when Jay Wright’s squad finally broke through and captured their first title in over 30 years. Last year they were champs once again, and cemented themselves as a Blue Blood. They’ve won at least a share of the ACC regular season title four of the last six seasons and have made a top three seeding par for the course in the NCAA tournament, but like Nova they have repeatedly come up short when the lights shined brightest. No season summed up this pattern more than the 2017-2018 run where they earned the # 1 overall seed in the Big Dance only to lose in historic fashion to16-seeded UMBC. Sure enough, they’re back again as a 1-seed this year and won the ACC regular season title, but something tells me things could be different this time around.

One key difference in this year’s tournament is  DeAndre Hunter, who sat out in last year’s lost to UMBC due to injury. Hunter is an NBA lottery talent whose build and skillset makes him practically unguardable – if you put a smaller guy on him he posts him up, but if you put a bigger guy on him and he’ll drive to the hoop and face him up. He has tremendous length, can stop and start on a dime, is an elite defender and rebounder, and has a soft shooter’s touch to make him a serious threat on the perimeter. 

Speaking of the perimeter, Virginia will kill you with sharp shooting from the likes of Kyle Guy and Ty Jerome. When these guys are hot they can collectively sink ten shots in a row before you know what hit you, but the Cavaliers also have the frontcourt depth to out physical you in the process. Tony Bennett’s teams beat you with patient offense and lock-down defense. They control the pace of the game and make you play on their terms. The game is as good as over if and when they stretch a lead above ten points.

 

North Carolina Tarheels

UNC looked like the best team in the country for much of February and March. Roy Williams squad have the toughness, size, and speed to play with anyone, and they also have the experience to back in up. Seniors Luke Maye, Cameron Johnson, and Kenny Williams all played pivotal roles in the Tar Heels’ championship run two years ago and younger players like Coby White, Nassir Little, and Garrison Brooks have made this team more dangerous than ever. Per usual, North Carolina will kill you on the offensive and defensive boards, creating more possessions than their opponents and also executed with high percentage shots. When this time is clicking they are a beautiful thing to watch: their ball movement, energy, and strength makes them an unstoppable force that is headed straight towards Minneapolis in a cloud of smoke.

Tennessee Volunteers

This is arguably the best team Tennessee has had in the last 30 years. They are experienced, athletic, and one of the closest groups in the country. Grant Williams and Admiral Schofield can score at will, but they also preach the next man up philosophy and trust each other to move the ball to get the right shot. The Volunteers have the speed to run with anyone and the depth to adapt to any opponent’s style. They enter the tournament with one of the nation’s most impressive résumés, beating Kentucky, Florida, and Mississippi twice along with then #1-ranked Gonzaga. At one point this season they won 19 in a row, and it looks like they’re hot again at the right time.

 

Houston Cougars

What an amazing year it’s been for the Cougars. Kelvin Sampson should be the frontrunner for coach of the year after his team won 31 games this season.  Seniors Corey Davis Jr. and Armoni Brooks lead a deep, experienced, and versatile team that is all-in on cutting down the nets come April. Brooks has made four or more threes in almost 20 games this season. He shoots 40% from three and doesn’t need a lot of space to pull the trigger because of his height and quick release, making him a difficult guy to gameplan for. Corey Davis Jr. poses as a similar threat beyond the arc but also possesses elite ball handling and play-making abilities. While their offense is impressive, the Cougars earn their stripes on the defensive end. They are top five in overall defensive efficiency, giving up 60 PPG and are 2nd in the country in both FG and 3-point percentage.

Let’s not forget that Houston might have made a run at it last year but fell in heart-breaking fashion to runner-up Michigan in the second round. That team was largely propelled by then-senior Rob Gray, and returns just about everyone around him. You don’t win 31 games by accident. This is a serious title contender that only lost three times all year against worthy opponents.

 

Kentucky Wildcats

John Calipari’s squads consistently improve from November to March at a higher rate than any other team in the nation. This year’s version of the Wildcats have fit that mold to a T. They got crushed by 30+ points against Duke in the season opened but steadily righted the ship to grow into another powerhouse. Featuring a mix of freshmen and sophomores, they aren’t quite as young as they’ve been in the past, which could also play to their favor in the tournament. Calipari recently call his team “one of the higher skilled teams” he’s ever had, and that statement is far from hyperbole. Look for PJ Washington, Tyler Herro, Reid Travis, and Keldon Johnson to make names for themselves in the tournament. They are all destined for greatness at the next level. The Wildcats are a lethal combination of sound fundamentals and raw talent. They are disciplined far beyond their years and play together for 40 minutes.

 

Nevada Wolfpack

Don’t let the 7-seed fool you: this is a legitimate Final Four contender. The Wolfpack entered this season ranked 7th overall, and played like a top-ten team for the first three months before hitting a slump in late February into March. Led NBA prospects Jordan Caroline and Caleb and Cody Martin, this is a group with as much talent as the rest of the title favorites and a ton of depth to support their stars. Everyone is a triple threat on this year – they are all tall, strong, can shoot, and size you up on defense, and love to play fast. They embrace positionless basketball and their ability to switch between match-ups on both ends of the floor makes them a hard team to gameplan against. Last year’s team could have made it all the way to the Final Four had they not blown a big lead to Loyola-Chicago in the Sweet Sixteen, and they return all of  five  starters for this year’s run in the Big Dance.

 

Marquette Golden Eagles

Marquette is one of the better 5 seeds of recent memory. Had it not been for a late-February skid this team’s résumé would have earned them a top-3 seeding. The Golden Eagles are exceptionally balanced, play inside-out, trust each other, and rotate well on both ends. Everyone on this team understands their role and embraces it to the fullest, from leading scorer Markus Howard all the way down to rim-protector Theo Jon. Marquette shoots 42% from three but doesn’t overly rely on three point shooting and runs a fluid offense that will find the soft spots of the defense and exploit them. Markus Howard averaged the most points in a power conference this season and is an elite shooter from anywhere on the court. He’s good for 40 on any given night but also has sharp-shooters Joey and Sam Hauser to spread the wealth to if teams overcommit to shutting him down. Howard and the Hauser brothers all shoot lights out from three and are 90% free-throw shooters, which could be a huge asset come tournament time. For a team as good as Marquette, they do tend to turn the ball over a lot, but their elite transition D often masks this flaw. They are Top 10 in overall defensive efficiency and match up will with most offensive juggernauts.

 

Auburn Tigers

The Tigers are en fuego right now, winners of their last 8 games including impressive wins against Tennessee (twice) and Florida. They are a deep team with a stellar defense whose quick hands force turnovers 25% of the time, the highest rate in the country. On the offensive side of the ball they shoot over 30 3s a game and convert on 40% of them. In their route over Tennessee in the SEC championship game, Auburn took 40 threes and made 15 of them. Bryce Brown and Justin Harper are both playing at an elite level right now – Harper might be the fastest guard in America and Bryce Brown recently became the all-time leader in Auburn threes. When this group is clicking, they possess a Warriors-like spurtability and can score in bunches. By shooting a high volume of threes they also get a lot of offensive rebounds, which, coupled with their ability to force turnovers gives them more scoring chances than than opponents. Bruce Pearl has to feel good about his team’s chances to make a run over the next few weeks.

Florida State Seminoles

Be afraid, be very afraid of the Florida State Seminoles. FSU has won 14 of their last 16, and over the course of the season collected impressive wins over Virginia Tech (twice), Virginia, Louisville, Syracuse, Saint Louis, Purdue, LSU, and Florida. They also narrowly lost to #1 ranked Duke by 2 points. Terance Mann leads and offense of 8 reliable scorers who share the ball and don’t place too much weight on any individual. They boasted the ACC’s best defense from two-point range, and defensive thief Trent Forrest averages a whopping 2 steals per game. FSU’s dominant victory over Virginia in the ACC tourney showed the world what they’re capable of. Coach Leonard Hamilton is no stranger to the NCAA tournament and looks to return to the Elite 8 for the second year in a row.