A couple of centuries ago, German theologian/GOAT Friedrich Schleiermacher defined religion as an intuition that “reveals the infinite within the finite.” It’s a shame this dude never lived to see the NCAA tournament: an infinitude of possibilities contained within one finite eventuality. March Madness is a sacred glimpse at infinity. Played out 1,000 times you might get 1,000 different outcomes. And last year, we learned that one of these outcomes includes NO tournament at all.
I agree, Michael. Super not chill to miss out on the greatest holiday of the year. Let’s vow to never settle for this March programming ever again:
By the grace of God/Yahweh/Allah/Clark Kellogg, 68 teams now March towards madness. But boy, what a bizarre journey it’s been to get here. It’s been a long (or short) season of Covid pauses, empty stadiums, crowded stadiums??, socially distant benches, socially undistant huddles??, Blue Bloods falling, pre-season losers thriving, Covid pinatas, absurd technical fouls, and so, so many…way, too many…cardboard cutouts.
Notable Moments
I’ll start by providing some context to my ‘absurd technical fouls’ statement. I really have one instance in mind, and that involved Texas Tech head coach Chris Beard. Behold this epic sequence, where Beard actually ends up sitting down on the floor and seemingly giving himself a tech before the refs follow suit. The cherry on top has to be when Beard then goes over to the opposing bench to fist bump his counterpart Bob Huggins on his way out. A chef d’ouvre of ejections – don’t know if we’ll ever see a better one.
On par with this absurdity – but far more stupid than hilarious – has to be when three University of North Carolina players, coming off a huge win against rival Duke, flaunted a maskless celebration that night on instagram and forced a postponement for their ensuing match up against Miami.
Months before either of these situations, there was this:
Yup, it’s exactly what it looks like. A Charleston-Southern player puked on NC State forward DJ Funderburk mid-game. Funderburk’s reaction is priceless.
Also priceless has to be the Minnesota Gopher’s perfect defeated road season. The same team that beat the likes of Michigan and Iowa earlier this year did not win a single game away from home!
It’s probably a good time to step in and note that not everything that happened this season was a farce. There were plenty of positive and uplifting moments to go around. Here are a few buzzer-beaters that made me feel all warm and fuzzy inside.
Despite falling just short of an at-large bid, the Xavier Musketeers earned two spots on this list. Moment number one came on December 20th courtesy of Belmont-transfer Adam Kunkel’s incredible last ditch step-back. Sounds even better with some Celine Dion accompaniment:
Great moment. But my heart goes on to an even sweeter scene from the same Xavier team just a few weeks after that. Two days after his grandfather passed away from Covid-19, freshman guard Colby Jones hit this last-second three to cement an 11-0 run and lift his Musketeers over Providence.
Some moments are bigger than basketball. And sometimes those moments happen to occur on a basketball court. Which leads me to the most powerful moment I witnessed this season: the guts and grit of Texas star guard Andrew Jones. On January 9th, three years to the day since head coach Shaka Smart informed his team of Jones’ leukemia diagnosis, Andrew came up clutch with a cold-blooded game winner against West Virginia to put a bow on what was one of college basketball’s finest 40 minutes of the season. Here’s how it all unfolded:
Setting the stage for this year’s tourney
Make no mistake – despite the oddities of this year’s regular season, this year’s tournament promises to be a beaut. Expect it to be as chaotic – if not more chaotic – than ever.
Unlike years past, the 2021 Tournament will take place entirely in and around the city of Indianapolis. No, it won’t be like the NBA bubble, but hopefully few things will ever have to be like that again. Instead, the NCAA has organized more of a ‘controlled environment’ type showcase where all 68 teams will play across a 6 host sites. Games will be played on two courts inside Lucas Oil Stadium, as well as Bankers Life Fieldhouse, Hinkle Fieldhouse, Indiana Farmers Coliseum, Mackey Arena in West Lafayette and Simon Skjodt Assembly Hall in Bloomington.
This dynamic ought to pose some fascinating wrinkles in momentum and preparation. Teams will be pretty restricted when they aren’t practicing or playing games and I’m intrigued to see which teams and turn this into a plus instead of a setback. We also have no idea what kind of impact smaller crowds will have in a tournament setting – will there be more upsets or will it be harder for the underdogs to feed off of the building’s energy?
This tournament’s cream of the crop consists of about 8 teams whom you’ll hear more about shortly. Outside of them I would be surprised to see a different champion be crowned. That being said, when I look at this bracket I also see a large number of 3-7 seeds who look vulnerable to an early exit, especially with a few strong Cinderellas lurking towards the bottom of the brackets. My money is on 2+ double digits seeds making it to the second weekend, joined by all of the 1 and 2 seeds except for one.
Before I get to the breakdown of where teams fall within my Contenders, Pretenders and Cinderellas, here are a few players poised to command your attention this weekend:
Ayo Dosunmu, Illinois
Jared Butler, Baylor
Luka Garza, Iowa
Jalen Suggs, Gonzaga
Cade Cunningham, Oklahoma State
John Petty, Jr., Alabama
McKinley Wright IV, Colorado
Marcus Zegarowski, Creighton
Evan Mobley, USC
EJ Liddell, Ohio State
Kai Jones, Texas
Jason Preston, Ohio University
Neemius Queta, Utah State
James Bouknight, UConn
Cameron Krutwig, Loyola-Chicago
Quentin Grimes, Kansas
Buddy Boeheim, Syracuse
Moses Moody, Arkansas
Without further ado, here are some teams worth rooting for, picking against, and keeping a watchful eye on as the tournament takes off.
The Contenders
Contender – /kənˈtendər/ – A team seeded 1-5 with the best chance at a Final Four.
Gonzaga
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Fresh off an undefeated regular season for the first time in school history (and only the 4th time any team has done it in the last four decades), there isn’t much doubt this is the most talented squad in the nation. Mark Fews’ Bulldogs start three future first-round draft picks, two of whom (Cory Kispert and Jalen Suggs) are poised to go top 10. Gonzaga scores over 92 points per game without needing to take more than 5-10 threes, distribute the ball like a thing of beauty (3rd in the country in assists), and shoot a lights out 55% from the field, a whole 3 percent better than any other team.
It should come as no surprise, then, that Gonzaga currently owns one of the greatest KenPom adjusted efficiency ratings of all time. They absolutely obliterated their opponents this year, including double-digit wins over Kansas, Auburn, Iowa, Virginia, BYU (three times) , and Saint Mary’s (three times). The only teams that really kept it interesting in the second halves were West Virginia (won by 5) and BYU (trailed by 14 points but came back to win by 10).
If there’s any semblance of an Achilles’ heel for these guys, it’s on the defensive end. They don’t give up a ton of points (69/game) but can’t be described as elite, mainly because of some holes in their rim protection. But these blemishes have hardly seemed to matter in any match up thus far.
Zags fans deserve this. Their team has been knocking at the door for one of the most impressive 2+ decade runs in college basketball history. Gonzaga had only made the NCAA Tournament twice before Few began his active streak of 22 straight appearances back in the year 2000. This feels like their time to shine, but teams in their region like Oklahoma, Creighton, USC, or Iowa might have something to say about that.
Baylor
Baylor held a place at the undefeated table with Gonzaga for the majority of the 2020-2021 regular season. It’s easy to see why – they have the most talented three-guard combo in the nation, featuring the likes of Jared Butler, Davion Michell, and MaCio Teague, who typically account for half of the team’s 3rd-ranked 85 ppg offense. Throw in forwards Mark Vital, Jonathan Tchamwa Tchatchoua, and Flo Tamba to the equation and you get a truly terrifying defense to play against.
Baylor is experienced. All of the players I just mentioned are upperclassmen, and the Bears have thrived through the gauntlet of back-to-back highly competitive Big 12 seasons. Let’s not forget that this team won 23 games in a row last year and then started this season 18-0 before a loss to conference rival Kansas. In other words, they’re pretty good at winning at least 6 games in a row.
But let’s talk more about that loss, and for that matter this past month in general, where Baylor suffered their only two losses of the season in the span of two weeks. I for one firmly believe that the Bears would not have taken on either of these L’s had the program not spent 3 weeks on a Covid pause following the results of 11 positive tests. For Pete’s sake, they almost lost to winless-in-the-conference Iowa State in their first game back and then had to play Kansas a mere four days later. It’s not just the three-week layoff we should take into consideration here. It’s equal, or more, parts Covid cases/recoveries. They are continuing to regain their mojo, as was evident in their conference tournament loss against Oklahoma State, but should be considered a frontrunner if they can hit their stride by the Sweet 16.
Michigan
Michigan was picked to finish 8th in the Big Ten this season. They finished 1st with an overall record of 20-4. I spent the entirety of the 2020 portion of this season in denial of what this squad was capable of accomplishing, but as the calendar turned I concluded that I was done pretending they didn’t belong in the Championship conversation.
They still belong, with one important asterisk. The Wolverines enter the tournament with senior wing scorer Isaiah Livers out ‘indefinitely’ with a stress fracture in his foot. Michigan is yet to rule him out for the rest of the season, but it doesn’t seem likely that Livers will play even if this team is still alive come April. The good news for Michigan fans is that they have a pretty complete team as it stands. They are deep, composed, and well-coached. Built by a strong foundation of a talented front court, electric wing scoring, and reliable ball handling, this is a team that won’t beat themselves. Juan Howard is perhaps the best coach in the country, and it’s worth noting that his coaching staff in general is elite. Their tutelage is no doubt the main reason why this group is so connected on the court, always five guys moving as a unit with poise and patience. The ball finds its way to the right guy on offense – they wait for the right shot – and the defense is physical yet disciplined at all times.
The Wolverines’ best player is Franz Wagner, younger brother of NBA pro and former Michigan alum Mo Wagner. When he’s clicking alongside freshmen phenom forward Hunter Dickinson and Columbia transfer Mike Smith at the point, they are as good as it gets.
The Isiah Livers injury aside, you can’t ignore Michigan’s vulnerability when it comes to backcourt height and overall talent. Their guards are good, but not elite, which could pose a problem if and when they match up with superior backcourts at Texas, Colorado, Alabama, or UConn.
Illinois
Unless you’re a Michigan or Ohio State fan, it’s borderline impossible to hate this Illini team. In one word, they play together. In five words, Ayo Dosunmu and Kofi Cockburn. In a lot more than five words, they are the perfect mix of experienced, athletic, balanced, and clutch. Dosunmu and Cockburn are the best inside-out duo in college basketball…and there really isn’t a close second.
Let’s start with Ayo Dosunmu, aka the Caped Crusader of Masked Madness. Dosunmu was already a sure bet fan favorite entering this season with his smooth two-way game, clutch shooting, and infectious passion. But he entered into Illinois folklore after he broke his nose a few weeks ago and started wearing the most bad-ass face mask – and continued to dominate with it on – ever since. Almost immediately after he took on this look Dosunmu declared, healthy or not, he would wear his mask throughout the entirety of the NCAA Tournament.
We’re in for a treat with Dosunmu & co. I mean, this is probably a top four seed without him. This became even more evident when Illinois beat Michigan and Wisconsin back-to-back in late February/early March with Dosunmu out due to the aforementioned injury. Get used to these other names while you’re at it – seniors Trent Frazier and De’Monte Adams, along with freshmen Andre Curbelo and Adam Miller. Curbelo and Miller are the future of Illinois’ backcourt – a point guard savant with the most interesting pre-game tennis ball routine I’ve ever seen alongside the best statistical three point shooter in the game.
You’ll be hearing about this team for a while. They aren’t going anywhere, and they’ll be a fun watch ’til the end. Kofi Cockburn will be the most dominant paint player in the tournament as long as he can stay out of foul trouble and hit his free throws.
Alabama
Nate Oates’ Crimson Tide are for real. It’s not a stretch to say that if they get hot they will dominate this tournament. There are two reasons for this. Reason # 1 is their NBA ‘analytics’ type style: they take a whole lot of threes and layups, and practically no long twos, and often connect for 10+ three pointers a game. They can score in bunches – LOTS of bunches – and absolutely kill you in transition. On the flip side, this Alabama team also defends at an elite level, forcing a ton of turnovers and slowing teams down with their strength and athleticism. This combo of D and O sets them apart from some other Final Four hopefuls. They have the talent and versality to match their opponents’ style; slugfest or shootout, they’ll compete until the final buzzer. Look for John Petty Jr. to become a darling of March. When he gets going, he looks invincible.
Texas
This year’s achievements have been five years in the making for Shaka Smart. His Longhorns match up well against anyone, thanks to a surge of three studs in the frontcourt (Greg Brown, Kai Jones, and Jericho Sims) alongside three alpha guards (Matt Coleman, Andrew Jones, and Courtney Ramey) in the backcourt. Truly, I have not seen a more talented and physically gifted mix of players. They match this talent with wisdom and composure – Texas entered the season 4th in the nation in experience.
Texas’ ceiling and floor have fluctuated quite a bit throughout the season. They started the year hot, going 11-1 in their first 12 games including a Maui Invitational Championship, but then entered a month-long drought from January into February. In the midst of this stretch they blew a 19 point second-half lead to West Virginia where two players (Andrew Jones and Courtney Ramey) famously tussled during a timeout when the game started heading south. At this point, chemistry issues appear to be a thing of the past for these Longhorns. They finished the season on a 6 game winning streak capped off by a Big 12 Tournament Championship.
Like Baylor, many of Texas’ blemishes can be explained away through Covid pauses. When fully healthy, they’ve proven they are capable of beating any team in the country. They’ve been the most watchable team this season and should be a real treat to see compete when the lights shine brightest.
Houston
Houston hasn’t been this good since Phi Slama Jama. That ain’t bad company. Kelvin Sampson’s team has the ultimate green light on offense, but not necessarily for reasons you would assume. Houston rebounds a whopping 45% of their own shots on offense (way more than any other team) and boasts the best first-shot defensive rating in the country, so really if they make any shots on their first try it’s kind of an added bonus. Getting a good look against them on offense is nearly an impossible task at times. The Cougars held half of their opponents under 20 points at the half. They grind you into a pulp and beat you down with concentration, effort, and accountability. That’s the definition of Houston basketball. They don’t rely on talent, but they sure have a lot of that too.
Let’s go back to their offensive rebounding for a sec because it’s out of this world. These guys literally rebound the ball off the rim the second it’s legal to do so. 6’7″, 225 lb forward Justin Goreham leads the country in offensive rebounds but a handful of his teammates aren’t far behind him on the list. They’ve only been out rebounded three times this entire season.
I cannot understate how much this team’s style might thrive in the NCAA Tournament when games slow down, become more physical, and get a little more chaotic. Controlled chaos runs through Houston’s DNA, especially when you consider how their second chances opportunities are often better looks than the first.
Look for Guetin Grimes and Marcus Sasser to take over – both are clutch scorers with a will to win and a willingness to put the team first. They will command a lot of attention from opponents and make room for junior wing DeJon Jarreau to have his way.
You may not consider this very often when watching games, but it’s fair to suggest that Houston will go as far as the refs will let them. They are built to win in a let-them-play kind of game, but are doomed if frequent whistles become a factor.
West Virginia
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West Virginia has made huge strides these past two seasons. Bob Huggins confidently called this year’s squad his best team since the 2010 Final Four run and he’s definitely not wrong about that. The Mountaineers’ strength last season was their length, anchored by twin towers Oscar Tshiebwe and Derek Culver whom it was damn near impossible to shoot over or defend against down low. This season’s roster rang a different bell especially after Tshiebwe transferred to Kentucky – unlike last season, they now compliment their front court strengths with a slew of guards who can all shoot, space the floor, and control the tempo.
Sophomore guard Miles McBride is a star in the making for this team. He may not have entered this season a lottery pick, but he’s sure as hell has played like one to this point. He can take over games but also does a great job involving and deferring to his teammates based on what the defense is giving him, and on the other side of the ball he is a flat out nuisance to try and score on. And it makes matters worse for opponents when they have to worry about fellow sharp-shooting guards Jordan McCabe and Sean McNeil catching fire. West Virginia never gets blown out. They match your punches, and play to the last whistle.
Oklahoma State
Cade Cunningham has lived up to the hype this season. He was the consensus number one overall pick going into the year and he’s got as a good a chance as anyone to become the first player off the board in the NBA draft. He can score at all three levels, switch at will on defense , and seems to have that it factor when it comes to making everyone around him better.
For most of the season, the question was always ‘Is he good enough to take this team to the Final Four?’ But his teammates altered that equation when they beat #6 ranked West Virginia towards the end of the season without Cunningham’s help, as he was nursing an ankle injury. The ankle since healed and Oklahoma State went on to best their own milestone with a signature Big 12 Tournament win over top seeded Baylor. These guys have what it takes to give Illinois a tough time in the Sweet 16.
The Pretenders
Pretender – /prəˈtendər/ – A team seeded 2-6 with the best chance of a first weekend exit.
Ohio State
The Buckeyes proved they were tough enough to hang with the best of the Big Ten this season. They played almost every top opponent close and came up clutch when it mattered most. Duane Washington (Derek Fisher’s nephew) and CJ Walker motor this team in the back court while sophomore stud EJ Liddell makes his living in and around the paint.
This is another example of an elite offense accompanied by an average defense. Simply put, the Buckeyes aren’t big enough. In fact, they measure as the shortest team in the Big Ten this season. They are an undersized talent-by-committee team run by an elite coach. They appear destined to be outsized and out-talented down the road.
Creighton
Creighton entered the season ranked 11th in the AP Poll but never quite matched those expectations. Their high-octane offense was electric at times and stagnant at others. Unexpectedly, what kept them going was a much improved defense capable of slowing opponents down when the match up called for it.
This team would have won a lot more games with a fully healthy Marcus Zegarowski – he’s the straw that stirs Creighton’s drink and was recovering from a previous knee injury for the first half of this season. But around the time when they showed glimpses of their potential once Zegarowski returned to form, their head Greg McDermott uttered the weirdest racially insensitive phrase to his team I’ve ever heard. They haven’t been the same team since, and got absolutely crushed by an inferior Georgetown squad in finals of the Big East Tournament.
Iowa
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It never hurts having a sure-bet National Player of the Year on your team. That’s what the Hawkeyes have with 6’11” senior center Luka Garza aka Garzilla, who repeatedly put up video game numbers throughout a historically dominant season. Garza is damn near unstoppable around the paint but has the ball skills and shot-making capability to keep you honest on the perimeter. He’s also surrounded by four incredible shooters – Jordan Bohannon, CJ Fredrick, Connor McCaffery, and Joe Wieskamp – so it’s really a pick your poison type of situation with this group. Wieskamp in particular will be a player to watch in the tournament. He shoots 50% from three.
All of that is grand – as long as the Hawkeyes are making their shots. They are the epitome of a team that lives and dies by the three. They have a bunch of great shooters but not a lot of shot creators, so when teams stifle them they do not have the defensive prowess to make up for it.
Iowa is a team everyone should root for but nobody should bet on. They are the most vulnerable 2 seed in the tournament.
Virginia
Virginia is still the defending national champions (something my wallet will be forever grateful for), but they are the last thing from a safe bet to advance in this year’s tournament. They adhere to most of the same elite defensive standards, but overall they aren’t as talented as Tony Bennett’s previous squads. The Cavaliers shoot over 80% from the charity stripe, which never hurts come tournament time, and are decent from three thanks in large part due to Marquette transfer Sam Hauser’s innate shot-making. But the pieces just don’t fit the way they used to with this team. Couple that with the severe disadvantage of having to bow out of the ACC Tournament due to a positive test, and then subsequently having to wait until Thursday just to head to Indianapolis for their Saturday match-up against a red hot Ohio University team, and you’ve got a bit of a recipe for disaster.
Fun fact: Ohio player Bennett Vander Plas was literally named after Virginia’s coach Tony Bennett (his father and Tony played at Wisconsin-Green Bay together).
Kansas
Kansas was the odds on favorite to win the 2020 NCAA Tournament…and then lost their two best players due to graduation/the NBA Draft. They still have a decent foundation in place with senior guard Marcus Garrett (2019-2020 Defensive Player of the Year), junior forward David McCormack, junior guard Ochai Ogbaji, and sophomore guard Christian Braun. Freshman forward Jalen Wilson emerged as the next focal point for this team in years to come, but he will not be available for their first round match up against a lethal shooting Eastern Washington squad. Expect Kansas to barely survive that game and then run out of real estate in the following round.
Texas Tech
Texas Tech is about as random as they get this year. In years past they’ve been built on a suffocating defense and balanced offense, and while they can still hold their own on that end of the floor they’ve proven vulnerable and inconsistent against worthy foes. Transfers Mac McClung and Marcus Santos-Silva have boosted a core of Kyler Edwards, Kevin McCullar, and Terrance Shannon, Jr. to help them compete with anyone when they’re at their best – but anything less than this team’s best effort typically ends in a loss against tournament-quality teams.
Villanova
This one just isn’t fair. At full strength, Nova would have competed for a Final Four with them best of them. But they are far from full strength having lost their heart and soul senior point guard Colin Gillespie to a season-ending injury. Adding salt to the open wound, their best ball handler – Justin Moore – was soonafter sidelined with an ankle sprain which played a significant role in the Wildcats’ early exit in the Big East tourney.
Villanova will go as far as sophomore wing Jeremiah Robinson-Earl will take them. JRE is destined for a lengthy professional career but he’s got some unfinished business on the collegiate level first.
The Cinderellas
Cinderella – /sin·dr·eh·luh/ – A team seeded 7+ with the best chance at a Sweet Sixteen run
Winthrop
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The ‘Throp play like a hockey team – they legitimately sub in and out three full line-ups of players, so it should come as no surprise that they boast the highest bench scoring in the country. DJ Burns is a force down low and he has seven players around him who shoot over 30% from three. They attack you where you are most vulnerable with relentless pace. There’s a good chance the slipper still fits next weekend.
Colgate
Colgate is sneaky good. They score by committee and surround two stars (Jordan Burns and Nelly Cummings) with an army of unsung heroes and role players. They are capable of hitting 10+ threes any night and are a lock for 70+ points against just about anyone, thanks to their consistency around the perimeter. Their defense is no joke, either. The Raiders rank first nationally with 30.5 defensive rebounds per game and second nationally in three-point defense (26.4%).
Colgate’s defense, coupled with its explosive offense, has led to a number of blowouts this season. The Raiders have won three games by 40 or more points and their 18-point average scoring margin ranks third nationally.
Ohio University
Ohio is fun. They push the tempo on offense and thanks in large part to the wizardry of star point guard Jason Preston they move the ball extremely well. Preston is perhaps the most promising candidate for this year’s Steph Curry/Kemba Walker: he controls the game with a smooth and explosive handle and can make any shot and any pass from anywhere. Preston himself is one of the best Cinderella stories I’ve ever heard of.
UConn
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I may have spoken too soon – there’s a strong case for Jason Preston as the next great player to take over the tournament for an unsung team, but the next Kemba Walker might already be playing for UConn. Guard James Bouknight is a flat out stud. He’ll go for 40 if he needs to, but unfortunately for him and his Huskies, he spent more time on the bench than the court this season due to a lingering elbow injury. UConn went 10-2 when Bouknight played and looked every bit capable of holding serve against the cream of the crop.
Saint Bonaventure
The Bonnies start four juniors, all of whom average at least ten points per game. They share the ball, communicate exceptionally well on defensive, and stand out overall as one of the most ‘together’ teams in the country. They aren’t here by mistake – their journey is just getting started and they’ll be even better next year.
Loyola-Chicago
It was a rough start to the 2020 pre-season when virtually the entire Ramblers team and staff got Covid. Fortunately, everyone associated with the program made a speedy and full recovery, so when the regular season started Loyola was off to the races. They finished first in a highly competitive Missouri Valley Conference with an overall record of 24-4 and currently rank 9th in adjusted efficiency on KenPom. This is not your typical 8 seed – I’d venture to say that they’re better than most of this year’s 5 seeds. Look for senior forward Cameron Krutwig to put on a legendary performance as he looks to return to the Final Four for the second time in four years.
Utah State
Utah State has established itself as a force in the highly underrated Mountain West Conference. Craig Smith is by most metrics the best third-year coach in the country after leading his Aggies to three straight tournament appearances. The player to watch on this team is junior center Neemias Queta. Queta’s stat line is absurd – 15 points, 10 rebounds, 2.5 assists, 1 steal, and 3 blocks per game. The dude’s finger prints are everywhere. He is utterly dominant in the paint on both ends of the floor and is easily one of the five most talented big men in this year’s tournament. Utah State’s path to the Sweet 16 is promising.