HOUSTON, Texas – In fewer than three weeks, the most anticipated and highest revenue-yielding sporting event of the year will have come and gone in the blink of an eye. Heartwarming stories, heartbreaking defeats, and heart-pounding finishes; the towering wave of March Madness comes in like a lion and out like lamb-craving coyote. Selection Sunday’s bracket reveal gave this tournament a newly defined direction, but make no mistake – come Thursday, any sense of structure will come crumbling down to pave way for something too sublime to be scripted.
We have a man named H.V. Porter to thank for the tournament’s moniker. Porter coined the term ‘March Madness’ nearly a century ago as the editor of the Illinois High School Association magazine. H.V. first etched the words “March Madness” in a 1939 publication concerning the Illinois basketball state tournament. Four years later, he published a poem in the same magazine titled Basketball Ides of March and its first stanza was nothing but net:
The gym lights gleam like a beacon beam
And a million motors hum
In a good will flight on a Friday night;
For basketball beckons, “Come!”
A sharp-shooting mite is king tonight.
The Madness of March is running.
The winged feet fly, the ball sails high
And field goal hunters are gunning.
Since when was Lord Byron a hoops junkie?! As the youngins would say, I’m here for it. Four decades after this chef’s kiss of a poem was crafted, sports broadcaster/Waterboy legend Brent Musburger sharpened the now famous phrase for college hoops. The rest, as they say, is history.
Season Trends, Story Arcs, and Tidbits
Speaking of not holding anything back, Clemson’s Brevin Galloway had a lot to share over social media regarding an unfortunate family jewels related injury back in January. It took some serious cajones (and lots of hospital drugs) to turn to Instagram and broadcast his ailment to the world. Credit the guy for cashing in on a pretty nuts situation: shortly after his testicular Twitter trend, Galloway signed an NIL deal with a men’s underwear company called Shinesty. Following the sponsorship, Galloway noted, “Now I can focus on dropping 3’s since I know Ball Hammocks won’t drop my 2’s.”
It’s a players’ game, but sometimes the coaches steal the show. In another ‘cashing in’ moment, Jim Larranaga trolled then grumpy old man – and now blissfully retired – Jim Boeheim by flashing a wad of cash when their teams matched up. This was after Boeheim butthurtedly claimed that Miami, Wake Forest and Pitt had ‘bought’ their teams while Syracuse relied on…fielding a shitty roster, I guess. Side note: I wonder what kind of completely-within-the-rules, no-financial-bribery business Boeheim got up to in the early 2000s when he recruited Carmello Anthony.
In contrast with Boeheim, Jim Larranaga has long solidified himself as a coach who is in no rush to retire seeing as he is already living the life of a wealthy retired Jew in Miami and still managed to coach his team to an Elite 8 last season. This dude knows what’s up.
Iowa coach Fran McCaffery knows a thing or two about messing with people’s minds, but instead of fellow coaches his recent target was a referee. Historically speaking that strategy doesn’t bode well for Fran, but something magical happened back in February that proved an exception to the rule. With a minute and a half remaining in a game that was slipping away from the Hawkeyes, McCaffery engaged in a 20-second staring contest with ref.
What happened next was even more of a shock. Iowa ended the game on a 23-10 run over the last 94 seconds to force OT, and then pulled away by five in the extra session. To force that extra session they also had to pull this off.
Best buzzer beater of the season? Arizona State might have something to say about that…
Let’s also not forget about this…
Partying with Parity
Parity was no stranger to the game this season. 50 different teams cracked the AP Top 25 through the first 12 weeks, the most ever. Ranked teams also had the most losses heading into the conference tournaments. So who can you trust? Which teams are busts? Later on, I’ll discuss.
Akin to last year’s tournament we have a slew of under-performing 7-10 seeds oozing with talent that are ripe for a giant-killing run. It should surprise no one if we do not see all four 1 seeds make it through to the Sweet 16.
Nor will all 5 seeds advance to the round of 32, ‘cuz boy, these 12 seeds are feisty!
One Shining Pattern
For a tournament that’s famous for its unpredictability, one recurring data point sticks out as something everyone should pay attention to: in each of the last 20 NCAA Tournaments , the national champion has been ranked in the Top 12 of the Week 6 AP Poll.
Who fits the list this year, you ask? Read ’em and weep:
Week 6 Poll, Released December 12th
- Purdue
- Virginia
- UConn
- Alabama
- Houston
- Tennessee
- Texas
- Kansas
- Arizona
- Arkansas
- Baylor
- Duke
Will March Madness zig to stick with the trend, or will it finally…Zag?
The Contenders
Contender – /kənˈtendər/ – A team seeded 1-5 with the best chance of reaching a Final Four.
Houston
To date, year 10 in Houston has been the apex of Kelvin Sampson’s coaching career. In less than a decade he transformed a dormant, bottom-feeding program into a perennial powerhouse. The Cougars have made the NCAA tournament in each of the past four seasons and are coming off back-to-back Elite 8 appearances. They reached the Final Four in 2021 for the first time in nearly four decades and feature a roster this year that most agree is a cut above that squad.
It’s a familiar formula at this point – beehive defense, towering size, and exhausting depth. Houston is the best team in the country at closing their opponents’ passing windows. They swarm and switch like no other, wear you down in the halfcourt, torch you in transition and absolutely kill you on the glass. The Cougars grab nearly 40% of their own misses, a figure made even more daunting when you consider the fact that they usually shoot the lights out, too. No wonder they own the highest scoring margin of any team in the country at 19 points per game (the next closest is 14!).
Houston was supposed to be a goner last year after they lost their two best players (Marcus Sasser and Jamal Shead ) to injury. Apparently the short-handed Cougars never got the memo, as they were mere minutes away from reaching a second consecutive Final Four last March. Scary to think how they’ll perform this time around, fully healthy and more talented than ever. Marcus Sasser’s 22-23 campaign has lived up to the hype and then some – he’s averaging 17 points, 3 rebounds, 3 assists, and 2 steals while shooting 40% from three and 85% from the line. Pair that with a roster boasting four other double-digit scorers and ten players who play more than 10 minutes a game and you’ve got a team with some serious championship DNA.
Oh, and did I mention that if Houston reaches the Final Four they’ll have to travel all the way to…Houston??
Kansas
It’s rare to have the defending champs poised to control another 1 Seed. It’s even rarer when the sequel squad has a better regular season résumé than its predecessor. Such is the case for this iteration of the Kansas Jayhawks, who are doing a better job of flirting with back-to-back title accolades than anyone since Al Hordford, Joakim Noah, and Corey Brewer’s ’07-’08 Florida Gators.
The Jayhawks are, in a word, balanced. They play within themselves and their system, spread the wealth on offense, and, with the exception of their most recent performance against Texas, play up to their opponent’s talent. Kansas enters the tournament with the best overall résumé in the field and there’s not really even a debate. They have the most quad one wins in the country (17) and have zero losses outside quad 1. Fat chance betting on these guys to have an off-night moving forward. They aren’t unbeatable (who is these days?) but tourney foes will have nothing handed to them when they face off.
Kansas features one of the most complete starting fives in the nation. Dajuan Harris is calm, cool and collected at the point and has a national championship ring to back it up; stud freshman Gradey Dick (lol) is a lethal sharpshooter with some sneaky athleticism; Jalen Wilson is a National Player of the Year candidate with an NBA wing prototype build; Kevin McCullar Jr. is a 210-pound bowling ball of a guard with elite pick-pocketing abilities; finally, stretch forward K.J. Adams leaves it all in the floor with a menacing swiss army knife of two-way skillsets and a motor that never runs out of gas.
You could debate whether or not there are better teams than Kansas lurking amidst the field, but you’d be hard pressed to suggest there’s a better coach in the country than Bill Self. Self’s teams have won 17 of the last 20 Big 12 regular season titles in a conference that is year in and year out regarded as arguably the best in the country. That’s disgustingly impressive…but wait, there’s more! Zoom out and examine Self’s entire coaching career and you’ll find that he has won 21 conference titles in 25 seasons.
Are we in for Rock Chock repeat? Maybe so, Jackie. Maybe so.
Alabama
Alabama is the most talented team in the country. Full stop. Yet, that assertion is practically a side note compared to the offcourt mayhem this program has experienced in the past three months. I’ll spare most of the details here. Long story short, one of their now-former players shot and killed a 23-year-old mother…and one of Alabama’s current players (and potential #1 overall draft pick) was the person who drove the gun to the scene.
With every tournament win, this story will balloon in size. It will matter more than Alabama’s nationally leading rebounding margin. It will matter more than Alabama’s inevitably massive early round blow-outs. It will matter more than a football powerhouse making the basketball Final Four for the first time ever.
When coach Nate Oats took the Tuscaloosa gig back in 2019, he melded NBA analytics into the college game in a way no one had ever accomplished. His teams are heavy on threes and lean on twos- unless they are lay-ups or dunks. They get into their offense early on in the clock and almost always put more shots up than their opponent. Just about everything Oats does is informed by statistics; he was, after all, a high-school math teacher before he moved up to the college level.
Bama was an overtime buzzerbeater away from reaching the Elite 8 back in 2021, but this year’s squad appears to be its strongest under Oats’ regime. The aforementioned Brandon Miller is a man among boys out on the court, showcasing skills that will earn him an absorbent amount of money next year. He sinks threes like they’re layups, makes layups like they’re dunks, and throws down dunks like he’s this guy:
It doesn’t hurt that Bama also boasts one of the best backcourt duos in the country. To go far in March, you typically need a point guard that can control the game and take over when called upon; Alabama has two of them. Jahvon Quinnerly and Mark Sears have the handles, vision, and clutchness that’s oh so valuable this time of year, and they are surrounded by a roster that is exceptionally long, athletic, and versatile. This program is built to last. The ball is in your court, Nick Saban.
Texas
The Longhorns had it all heading into November: a prolific coach, a heralded roster, and a brand spanking new arena. A month into the season they still had a state-of-the-art home arena and a wealth of reliable players. But ever since Chris Beard’s firing, Texas has done nothing but continue to win. Interim coach Rodney Terry, who looks like a good-guy version of the Breaking Bad character Gus Fring, deserves a ton of credit for keeping the Longhorns locked in and poised to make a deep tournament run.
Texas has depth and experience at every position on the floor. They feature three guards who’d start on 90% of the teams in the country, complemented by a slew of athletic bigs who can run the floor and bully in the paint. The pieces fit together seamlessly from top to bottom.
The offseason addition of true point guard Tyrese Hunter allowed Marcus Carr to slide into more of a shooting guard role akin to his days as a featured scorer for the Minnesota Golden Gophers, and he has thrived because of it. Carr made a concerted effort to improve his condition (he lost 20 pounds in the offseason), and the results this season speak for themselves: he’s averaging 16 points, 3 rebounds, 4 assists and 2 steals per game but is capable of putting up 30 on any given night.
What makes the Longhorns so dangerous is that they never have to rely on just one guy. Fellow guards Tyrese Hunter and Sir’Jabari Rice also averaged double digits this season, while forwards Timmy Allen, Dylan Disu, and Christian Bishop are statsheet stuffers in their own right. And I haven’t even mentioned senior fan-favorite Brock Cunningham, who is consistent as hell whenever his number is called upon. Cunningham is a 42% three-point shooter and shoots 90% from the line. Double-team the Longhorn’s stars at your own risk: they have plenty supporting cast capable of making you pay.
Texas enters the NCAA Tournament winners of their last four games by an average margin of 14 points, most recently blowing out defending champion Kansas by 20 in the conference finals. You don’t consistently dominate Big 12 competition like this without being built to win it all.
Arizona
Arizona is built a lot like Texas. They are deep at every position and can beat you in a variety of ways. The Wildcats’ not-so-secret sauce is their meticulous inside-out scheme. They initiate offense by feeding their uber-talented and athletic bigs; then, those bigs have the freedom to capitalize off of a mismatch or, after drawing the defense in, dish it back out to a row of precise perimeter shooters. The net result is one of the best offenses in the country. They play at a lightning pace (4th in adjusted efficiency) and score in a whole lot of bunches (3rd in points per game). They’re also a brilliant passing team: it’s not uncommon for all five players to touch the ball on a possession before a shot is taken, and it is common for the scorer to be passed into an open or uncontested shot.
‘Zona is privileged to possess two of the best running bigs in the country. Oumar Ballo is a seven-foot, 260-pound motor who simply cannot be stopped once he’s established his momentum towards the basket. On the defensive side of the ball he is a brick wall in the paint, good for registering multiple blocks and altering just about every shot, should you choose to challenge his territory. Azoulis Tubelis isn’t quite as looming as Ballo (1 inch, 20 pounds shorter), but his elite footwork, technique and finesse accentuate his size and strength in a manner that is truly unique to his skillset. Tubelis averages 20 points and nearly 10 rebounds per game, and Ballo isn’t far behind him in either category.
All five of the Wildcats’ starters are double-digit scorers, so if you’re damn near set on the steep task of stifling their bigs then you’re asking for a whole lot of trouble from their guards. Point guard Kerr Kriisa (named after Steve Kerr) plays with equal parts grace and insanity; his court vision is second to none and his shooting range rivals Steph Curry, but he’s got more of a Draymond Green temper. Kriisa’s passion for the game has been a double-edged sword at times, but he tends to channel it for the better when the lights are brightest. With all of this in mind, Texas transfer guard Courtney Ramey has proven the perfect complement for Kriisa. Ramey plays within himself at all times, stepping back when his talented teammates are feeling it, and stepping up when the moment calls for it. Ramey is a 40% three point shooter but it feels like he never misses the big ones. Junior Pelle Larson is the Kirby of Wildcats basketball: he rounds out the starting five featuring an amalgamation of everyone else’s skillset. Larson is technically a guard, but he clocks in a 6’5″ with as much of a knack for impacting the paint as he has for perimeter play.
If Arizona can string together six more wins, they will go down as the most internationally-laden roster to ever win a national championship. Eight of their players hail from non-U.S. soil and the squad is represented by seven different countries.
UConn
In a post-game press conference following a fourth consecutive UConn loss back in January of 2020, coach Dan Hurley was resolute: “people better get us now, because it’s coming.” Three seasons later, he leads a proven Huskies squad into the tournament with a ceiling as high as Houston’s NRG Stadium. UConn has finally arrived…or ‘returned’, depending on how you see it.
Connecticut entered this season unranked in the AP Top 25 but rocketed all the way up #2 in the country by mid December. Most who doubted this iteration of the Huskies quickly conceded after they witnessed UConn obliterate the field at the PK85 on Thanksgiving with wins over Oregon, Alabama and Iowa State. It takes a lot to make Alabama look bad; UConn flat out embarrassed them in a fifteen point blowout.
UConn is more of a by-committee kind of roster, but that’s not to say they don’t have some starpower on their side too. Jordan Hawkins is a player to keep an eye on heading into the tournament: he has the ability to take over any game with an offensive skillset fit for a pro. Two more game-changers include forwards Andre Jackson Jr. and Adama Sanogo. Sanogo boasts a burly presence down low, averaging 17 points and 7 rebounds per game, and logged double digits in all but four games this year. Jackson Jr., on the other hand, is an enigmatic swiss army knife with the size and athleticism akin to my beloved Robert Williams III on the Celtics. There were plenty of moments this season where Andre Jackson did something so physically astonishing that my eyes had to see the replay in order to believe it. Behold exhibit # 1:
Jackson is wired to put you on a poster if you stand between him and the basket. Sprinkle in guard Tristen Newton (10 points, 4 rebounds, 5 assists, and 1 steal per game), forward Alex Karaban (6’8″ 40% three-point shooter from Southboro, MA), center Donovan Clingan (6 rebounds per game), and sharpshooting guard Joey Calcaterra (45% from three), and you begin to get the picture why this team is capable of cutting down the nets.
Marquette
Marquette was projected to finish 9th in the Big East heading into the season. The perception was that Shaka Smart – admittedly an all-star coach with a proven track record – would need another year or two to recruit and develop a roster that fit his philosophies after taking over the program in 2021. Three weeks into the season they embarrassed #6 ranked Baylor by 26 points and never looked back as they stormed through the Big East, winning the conference by multiple games and following that up with a Big East Tournament title over aforementioned UConn.
The numbers tell the story for this team: they’re a top 12 team on just about every metric-based website and lead the nation in both offensive pace and 2-point field goal percentage. When you get lots of shots up and most of them go in, you tend to win a lot of games. But it’s been Marquette’s defense of late that has propelled them into the title contender conversation. Past performances on that side of the ball against elite offensives like Xavier, Creighton, and UConn should terrify every team in the East Region of the bracket.
The Golden Eagles were one of the only high-major teams in the country to add zero new additions through the transfer portal. Shaka trusted his rising sophomore class to take a giant leap forward, and he trusts them to continue winning over the ensuing weeks.
Duke
Duke enters the 2023 Tournament flying somewhat under the radar. How does that happen with a program like this? Well, the short answer is health. They haven’t had much of it this season, as they were plagued by injuries early and often. Five-star freshmen studs Derreck Lively and Dariq Whitehead were sidelined before the season even began. By the time they were both reinserted into the line-up, it was one prolonged game of Whac-a-Mole: senior point guard Jeremy Roach hurt his toe, then Whitehead, then Jaylen Blakes, then leading scorer Kyle Filipowski…the team was more likely to catch a broken bone than a break of fortune.
Duke finally enters the tournament with a clean bill of health. The stats suggest that ought to make a difference: the Blue Devils are 18-1 when their core is all playing this season, compared to an 8-7 record otherwise. We can’t judge this team based on their full body of work because they haven’t been the same team throughout. But we can judge them since they’ve finally become whole, and those results bode well for their path ahead.
Derrek Lively and Dariq Whitehead entered the season as Duke’s most prolific freshmen, but it was Kyle Filipowski who carried this team to where it currently stands. Filipowski has been phenomenon from start to finish, averaging 15 points, 9 rebounds, 1.5 assists, 1 steal, and 1 block per game. As the anchor of Duke’s inside-out game, Filipowski has the size, strength, and footwork to control the paint along with the handles, vision, and shot-making to stretch the floor. He was the MVP of the ACC Tournament and I wouldn’t bet against him this weekend.
Mike Krzyzewski might be retired, but Duke is still Duke. Jon Scheyer navigated this squad through some stormy seas over the past four months but if they can stay afloat in a feisty first-round match-up against Oral Roberts it might be clear skies ahead.
UCLA
The Bruins check off every box imaginable for a title contender. They’re a veteran cast led by five seniors; they boast elite talent at every position; they have the nation’s most prolific defense and rate top 25 in offensive efficiency; they have a top talent coach whose scheme and leadership can be trusted. But their most intangible trait is that they’ve been here before. Experience isn’t unique for most front-runners in March, but tournament experience is an entirely different beast. This year’s team features four players who played pivotal roles on the Bruins’ magical 2021 Final Four run. Two of them – Jaime Jaquez and Tyger Campbell – are poised to rise as UCLA’s tournament stars this time around.
Jaquez and Campbell are each tailor-made for tournament success in their own ways. Jaquez is a three-level scorer who makes contested shots look easy and easy shots look inevitable. He takes what the defense gives him and makes something out of nothing ten times out of ten. He’s equal parts resilient and savy, but above all, he’s clutch AF. Tyger Campell also happens to sport the clutch gene. Campbell has been the Bruins’ trusted floor general for several seasons running, possessing the vision, handles, speed, and poise necessary to control a game from tip to horn. This year it’s been Campbell’s marked improvements as a shooter that have taken his already established game to new heights. He is now a 40% three point shooter after never before eclipsing 30%.
UCLA recently lost their best defender for the season in Jaylen Clark, aka the Man of Steal. He was also their second leading scorer. But if any team can overcome this kind of setback heading into the tournament, it’s a team like the Bruins. 24-year-old journeyman David Singleton remains healthy as the heart and soul of the team. Freshmen phenoms Adem Bona and Amari Bailey will have plenty to offer as well. This team lives for this month.
The Pretenders
Pretender – /prəˈtendər/ – A team seeded 1-5 with the best chance of an early exit.
Baylor
Most people had Baylor pegged to usurp Kansas atop the Big 12 this season based on their slew of talent and depth, and also because of two words: “Keyonte” and “George.” Freshman guard Keyonte George has, for the most part, lived up to the hype, slotting 16 points, 4 rebounds, 3 assists, and 1 steal per game. Fellow backcourters Adam Flagler and LJ Cryer also came to play this season, each averaging 15 points and shooting 40% from three. Fowards Jalen Bridges, Flo Thamba, and Caleb Lohner matched the guards’ consistency in the paint, and yet, despite a relatively successful season, it feels like something’s missing.
I had thought that ‘something’ was Jonathan Tchamwa Tchatchoua, their veteran forward who played an integral role on Baylor’s national title team two seasons ago. JTT was sidelined with a brutal knee injury a year ago but made a rather miraculous recovery in order to rejoin the team last month. Things did appear to be heading in the right direction upon his return as the Bears notched four straight wins, but since then they’ve lost four of their last six.
For a roster with this much continuity from a recent championship run, emulating the same three-guard attack and starting the same two bigs as two seasons ago, the ceiling ought to be higher. Unfortunately for the Bears, they will only go as far as their defense, which has missed more games than Jonathan Tchamwa Tchatchoua this season.
Purdue
The Boilermakers were world-beaters for the better part of this season, which was something close to no one saw coming. Akin to UConn they rose rapidly, from unranked all the way to the top, all before the calendar even turned to 2023 thanks to heavy-hitting non-conference wins against Marquette, Gonzaga, and Duke. Purdue then proceeded to bully most Big Ten teams en route to both a regular season and conference tournament title.
They are led by Zach Edey, one of the most dominant big men the sport has seen in recent years. Edey is quite literally a double-double machine, averaging 22 points and 13 rebounds. At one point this season he even had a double-double in three consecutive halves! Edey has prospered not just because of his unique build and skillset, but also because of the pieces around him. Purdue’s supporting cast plays beautifully unselfishly and balances Edey’s interior dominance with timely perimeter shooting.
So what’s the catch? There’s clearly some kind of catch, Evan!
The catch is this: Purdue hasn’t beaten a team that is currently ranked in the Top 25 since November. They dominated a historically shaky Big Ten and, despite their early season success, it remains unclear how well the Boilermakers will match up against tournament foes. Edey’s supporting cast has been solid but they remain undeniably young. Purdue’s two starting guards – Fletcher Loyer and Braden Smith – are undersized freshmen who will face an uphill battle in potential match-ups to come.
Gonzaga
Gonzaga has been crushing metrics lately after an uncharacteristically ‘slow’ start by their standards. They rank first in Bart Torvik over the past month and sit 12th in KenPom overall. They are the highest scoring team in the country and are winners of nine in a row. And they have Drew Timme, Gonzaga’s all-time leading scorer.
But…it’s honestly tough to gauge how good they’ll be against the tournament’s cream of the crop. They were a mixed bag against elite opponents towards the beginning of the season and have been beating up on WCC fodder ever since. Admittedly the Zags trounced a sneaky good Saint Mary’s team in the WCC championship game and have appeared to incrementally improve throughout the year, but the ultimate cause for concern is that they don’t have a true point guard on their roster. It’s not easy to trust teams like that, especially when their defense isn’t anything to write home about either.
Virginia
For a brief stretch across November and December, Virginia appeared to be a dominant team on…offense?! They outpaced Baylor and Illinois in two high-octane match-ups and where their team seemed immune from missing during long stretches. But, slowly but surely, the Hoos regressed to the mean and enter the tournament as a familiar archetype: stifling on defense with the velocity of a tortoise on offense.
Virginia has 7 players capable of making a real difference in a tight game. Senior guard Kehei Clarke knows a thing or two about winning a national championship and he is exactly what’d you want to have as a point guard in the Dance. His partners in crime up top are Armaan Franklin and Reece Beekman, both upperclassmen with tremendous shooting abilities. Jayden Gardner, Kadin Shedrick, and Ben Vander Plas pack the paint down low and force teams to hit from the perimeter – Vander Plas has a nice perimeter game to offer of his own on offense.
Tony Bennett is as good as it gets on the coaching level but his solid but unspectacular squad is ripe for an early exit if their opponent gets hot from outside.
Miami
Miami enters the tournament with one of the highest levels of variance of any team in the field. On one hand, they made the Elite 8 last year, won the ACC regular title this year, and went toe to toe with Duke in the ACC tournament. On the other hand, their ACC accolades may be somewhat diluted due to a down year across the conference. Plus, their defense has been shaky at best over the past month and their rebounding has been consistently horrendous all season.
The Hurricanes are led by a quartet of gamers averaging 13 points or better: Isaiah Wong, Jordan Miller, Norchad Omier (who is injured), and Nijel Pack. It’s no secret this team can shoot. They have eight players that average north of 30% from three, six of whom are better than 36%. Their speed and athleticism opens the floor for fruitful driving lanes; when they aren’t draining threes they have a pretty high success rate getting to the basket. This also buys an abundance of free throws for a team that shoots nearly 80% from the line.
TL;DR – these guys shoot the lights out when they’re hot, but if they ever go cold, they won’t get many second chance points and it will be tough for them to keep pace with a worthy offensive opponent.
Xavier
The Masketeers fell short of a tournament birth in each of the previous four seasons after earning a 1 seed for the first time in school history back in 2018. Lucky for them, they now have their old coach Sean Miller back at the helm. Miller coached the X Men from 2004-2009 and led them to four tournament appearances in five seasons, including consecutive Elite 8 and Sweet 16 runs in his final two seasons. It comes as little surprise that his presence revitalized this program to its older ways, as Xavier heads into this year’s Dance as a 3-seed.
This team has plenty of offense to go around. They are 9th in the nation in offensive efficiency and featured five starters in double digits this season. Unfortunately, one of those starters, Zach Freemantle, suffered a left foot injury that required surgery and is out for the tournament. His presence will be particularly missed on the defensive side of the floor, as an already weak defensive unit will be hard pressed to fill his 6’9″ 225 pound shoes.
Xavier certainly turned some heads when they blew out Creighton en route to the Big East championship game. Was that a fluke or a sign of things to come?
Tennessee
Pour one out for the Tennessee Volunteers who, just a few short weeks ago, sat pretty at #2 overall in the AP Poll courtesy of a hot streak culminating in an 11-point triumph over Arizona. The Vols proceeded to drop 5 of their next 7 games and it remains unclear if the skid has even come to a halt yet. Adding injury to insult, star point guard Zakai Zigler suffered a torn ACL during the final week of the regular season. Zigler was, in all honesty, a rare offensive spark on a team that orchestrates championship-level defense paired with SWAC-level scoring.
The player to root for is Santiago Vescovi, a senior guard from Uruguay who makes my heart swoon with each step-back jumper or catch-and-shoot three. Vescovi has seen a fascinating contrast of teammates come and go throughout his time in Knoxville and knows a thing or two about playing in March. Nothing will come easily for his squad this tournament, but even with a struggling offense they are prone to keep games close with their D.
The Sleepers
Sleeper – /slee·pr/ – A high major team seeded 6+ with the best chance at a Sweet Sixteen run
TCU
TCU is dangerous, VERY dangerous. The Horned Frogs would have been in contention for a 1 or 2 seed had they remained remotely healthy this season. Injuries to Mike Miles and Eddie Lampkin put that thought to bed, but both players enter the tournament in full form and their team is poised to match the moment.
Jamie Dixon’s squad switches absolutely everything on defense in a fashion few rosters could dream of executing. They are the kings of disrupting the opponent’s offensive flow. As a result, they force turnovers left and right and then kill you in transition. They may not be the most consistent jump-shooters, but it hardly matters when you’re doing most of your scoring on fast breaks.
This is a team that blew out defending champion Kansas by 23 on its home floor, handled Kansas State twice, and bested both Baylor and Texas during the regular season. They are capable of beating anyone in the field. You’ve been warned.
Creighton
Creighton had a weird season to say the least. They entered the year with their highest AP ranking ever, #9 in the nation, and hit the ground running on a six-game winning streak. The Blue Jays then dropped their next six to level out to .500, in large part due to star center Ryan Kalkbrenner missing an extended period of time with a non-Covid illness. Creighton’s see-saw season swung back the other way when they strung together nine straight wins…but as you can probably guess, they struggled on the back quarter of their schedule.
So why should we still believe in this team? It begins, and ends, with their starters. This is not a deep roster by any stretch of the imagination, but that could actually play to their advantage. Coaches tend to trim most post-season rotations regardless of what their benches look like because, shocker, you should maximize your best players in a one-and-done scenario. The real value of depth in post-season play has to do with foul trouble. Lucky for Creighton, they never experience that. It’s truly remarkable the way they can lock down opposing offenses without warranting a whistle. And in a tight game on the other end of the floor, they’ll cash in on their free throws.
Arkansas
Arkansas gave us such a hodge podge of unreliable data this season that the Selection Committee might as well have slotted them in without an official seed number next to their name. After missing the first three weeks of the season, hyped freshman phenom Nick Smith Jr. played in a mere five games before being sidelined once again until mid February. It’s been a mixed bag of results since his (second) return, but the Razorbacks showed what they’re capable of when they marched into Alabama and lost a nail-biter to the #2 Crimson Tide.
The Hogs are physical, fast, and fierce. They aren’t the sharpest sharpshooters on offense but do just fine for themselves in transition and cash in on second chance points. Nick Smith Jr. changes their entire point of attack with his ability to space the floor and create his own shot. We could still be talking about this team in the second weekend.
The Cinderellas
Cinderella – /sin·dr·eh·luh/ – A mid-major team seeded 7+ with the best chance at a Sweet Sixteen run
Drake
Drake is poised to become a household name this month. They aren’t just experienced, they’re ancient. Four of their five starters are proven fourth- or fifth-year seniors, but their best player is actually sophomore Tucker DeVries. The coach’s son, DeVries is an absolutely lethal scorer clocking in at 19 points per game, but he also stuffs the stat sheet in a variety of other ways (6 rebounds, 2 assists, 1 steal per game with an 84% rate at the charity stripe).
It’s a game of poison picking with these guys. The entire Bulldogs roster will make you pay at the foul line, but if you play off of them they’ll kill you with jumpshots. They play without fear on offense and without compromise on D, gradually wearing their opponents down with debilitating ball movement and suffocating guarding. Team of destiny? They just may be.
Furman
The Paladins hit heartbreak city head on during last year’s SoCon championship game vs. Chattanooga:
They returned with a vengeance this season and served up justice to the same Chattanooga squad, besting them by nine in this year’s championship battle. Anybody and everybody in a purple-white uniform takes threes, and they knock down 35% of them as a team. The ‘Dins rank 33rd in overall offensive efficiency, an eye-popping figure for a mid-major of their stature, but I assure you this team is far from a facade.
Furman resembles a hockey team in their capacity to play ten+ players deep. They never let their foot off the gas and, if anything, appear to gain energy as the game evolves. The Paladins turn defense into offense in the blink of an eye with an exceptional propensity to force turnovers and capitalize in transition.
If you’ve never heard of Jalen Slawson and Mike Bothwell – two senior studs who can ball with the best of them – then chances are you will have by Thursday afternoon. Virginia might be in trouble.
Colgate
I’ll spare the details and cut right to it: Colgate is the best three point shooting team and has effective field goal percentage in the country. Their reward? The Final Four hopeful Texas Longhorns. Can the Red Raiders pull off the upset? Sure. Will they? Wouldn’t count on it…but if they work miracles, I sure as hell like their chances in the next game.
Oral Roberts
Max Abmas is back and better than ever, and so are the Oral Roberts Golden Eagles. Oral Bob mounted a magical tournament run back in 2021 and was an Abmas rimmed out three away from pulling a St. Peter’s the year before that was even a thing.
The Golden Eagles feature eight 33%+ three point shooters, so good luck choosing who to stop. Star guard Max Absmas has proven time and time again that he usually can’t be stopped – the dude averages north of 22 points, 4 rebounds, 4 assists, and 1 steal and shoots 92% from the foul line.
No wonder these guys own the nation’s longest winning streak heading into the Dance. It’s not inconceivable to picture the Bobs reaching a second Sweet 16 in three years
Kent State
Kent State does not pass the eye test of a meager mid-major: they’re built more like Bama than Bowling Green. These guys have the size and strength to hang with the big boys, and that’s what they’re prepared to do against Indiana on Friday. The Golden Flashes boast an elite defense. They are 19th in opponent field goal percentage and 17th in steals per game. Offensively they are led by a scoring assassin in the name of Sincere Carry, who put up 26 in the MAC championship game and averages 18 points, 5 assists and nearly 2 steals per game. Carry has plenty of help to call upon from his supporting cast, too. This team nearly beat Houston and Gonzaga in their own gyms and is capable of beating anyone, including 4 seed Indiana, in the tournament.
Florida Atlantic
FAU fits the Cinderella bill to a t. They’ve been dominant all year, finishing 18-2 in a sneaky good C-USA and 31-3 overall. The Owls sport a style that allows them to dictate the flow of the game by controlling the interior and forcing their opponents out of their comfort zone. They are the epitome of a team that plays within themselves. They don’t beat themselves and never take a night off: at one point they held the nation’s longest win streak of 20 games.
Florida Atlantic’s nucleus has been around for a while. They brought back eight of their top nine players from last season, ranking 3rd in the country in year-over-year minutes continuity. The Owls are confident enough in their depth to feature a different player practically every night. They are built for this moment.