British playwright William Archer penned that drama is “anticipation mingled with uncertainty.” The 2024 NCAA tournament promises plenty of dramatic alchemy. We stand on its precipice, drunk with anticipation for rising contenders, wilting pretenders and balling Cinderellas. Mingled with this anticipation is the uncertainty of it all: the randomness of shotmaking, the chaos of competition, and the Madness of March.

The board is set and it’s anyone’s guess what happens next. The method to the tournament’s madness is just that: Madness.

College basketball has a way of usurping its own parity principles on an annual basis. That trend continued with what has been nothing short of an unpredictable season. Try these factoids on for size:

• For the first time ever, 4 of the AP top 5 lost to unranked teams in the span of 48 hours (January 9th-10th).
• Unranked teams have recorded the most wins of all time over ranked opponents.
• Top ten teams have lost to unranked teams on the road 50% of the time, another all-time high (nearly 25 percentage points below the historical standard).
• 9 teams from the Preseason Top 25 ended the regular season unranked. 5 of those 9 failed to even qualify for the NCAA tournament.
• Only 11 of the 32 regular season conference winners went on to win their conference tournaments.
• 5 teams ‘stole’ bids this year by winning their conference tournaments unexpectedly. The total number of bid stealers across the previous two seasons combined was 3.

This season also featured a player blocking a shot with his shoe…

…a player getting ‘injured’ during a court storming…

…crazy endings like this…

…and arguably the greatest (unintentional?) bounce-pass of all time:

Trends, Story Arcs, and Tidbits

At least one 4-seed has lost in the first round 12 of the past 15 tournaments. I’m inclined believe that might not happen this year despite a vulnerable quartet of powerhouses (Kansas, Duke, Alabama, and Auburn) facing a few enticing opponents (Yale, Charleston, Samford, and Vermont).

We also tend to see at least one 12-seed outlast a 5-seed. Notably, this did not occur in 2023. We are statistically due for some shake-ups this Thursday/Friday.

Before you get too bullish on this year’s 6-seeds, consider the following: 11-seeds actually own a +.500 record all-time in these match-ups. It’s reasonable to conclude that we’ll see at least one 11-seed prevail this time around.

Week 6 of the AP Poll

And now for the most staggering statistical trend of all: since 2004, the national champion has always ranked in the top 12 of the Week-6 AP Poll.

So the question is, why?

Week 6 of the college hoops calendar corresponds with the middle of December and accounts for the majority of non-conference play. That’s a reasonable sample size to judge the sport’s aristocracy: it measures a decent quantity of quality competition, headlined by match ups oft-played on a neutral court.

Records become somewhat diluted once you reach conference play from January onward. That’s when teams play more familiar conference foes, half of the time within true road environments. Mid-season skids are therefore inevitable – just ask last year’s UConn squad. The Huskies clocked in at #3 in the Week 6 Poll before losing 6 of their next 8 during the front half of conference play. They entered the tournament as a 4-seed, but we know how the rest of that story played out.

Thus, mid December is a decent barometer for the cream of the crop. That’s not to say all teams that boast gaudy Week 6 rankings remain a threat come March. On the contrary, about half of the Top 12 typically fall off. Last year, the Virginia Cavaliers ranked #2 in the country in Week 6 but ended up losing in the first round of the tournament to 13-seeded Furman in devastating fashion:

Here is the list of this season’s Week 6 Top 12:

1. Arizona
2. Kansas
3. Purdue
4. Houston
5. UConn
6. Baylor
7. Marquette
8. Creighton
9. North Carolina
10. Gonzaga
11. Oklahoma
12. Tennessee

Oklahoma did not qualify for the field, which leaves 11 tournament teams poised to prolong the trend.

Defending Champs Beware

Bad news for UConn: ever since Florida repeated in 2007, no defending champ has made it past the Sweet Sixteen.

Sweet Fifteen

In each of the past three tournaments, a 15-seed has won its first game…and then gone on to reach the Sweet 16. Prior to this stretch, there had only been 8 occasions total where a 15 came out on top.

It just so happens that one of those 15-seeds this year is Saint Peter’s. Can the Peacocks revive some of their 2022 magic?

Without further ado, here are this year’s contenders, pretenders, sleeping giants, and Cinderellas.

The Contenders

Contender – /kənˈtendər/ – A team seeded 1-5 with the best chance of reaching a Final Four.

UConn

UConn enters the Big Dance as the most complete team with the most formidable résumé. The Huskies bested their opponents by an average scoring margin of 17.1 points per game. Last time I checked, that’s a lot. They earned quality wins over tournament teams Texas, North Carolina, Gonzaga, Creighton, and Marquette (twice) and have no ‘bad’ losses to their name. Each of their three losses can be explained away: they were short-handed with injuries in road losses vs. Kansas and Seton Hall, and they fell in Creighton’s gym in a game where the Blue Jays couldn’t miss from three. That’s it. No other blemishes.

The Huskies lost their top three players to the NBA draft last offseason, but make no mistake: Dan Hurley has reloaded with a roster that’s arguably more dominant than last year’s. All five starters average double digits and snag at least 4 rebounds per game. Four of those starters shoot north of 75% from the charity stripe and 30% from three. Four starters force one steal per game.

This team boasts big-time talent, relentless aggression, bountiful depth, supreme balance and connectivity, and a heady scheme. They bring their A-game night in and night out and can notch the intensity up to 11 with the snap of a finger. Look for dominant performances from stud center Donavan Clingan (aka Cling Kong), All-American point guard Tristen Newton, and sharp-shooter Cam Spencer as they seek to plow their way from the round of 64 all the way to Glendale, AZ.

But let’s remember the hard truth regarding the likelihood of repeating: history is strongly against the Huskies. History says UConn won’t make it back to the Final Four…or even the Elite Eight. Past patterns aside, you can also make the case that of all four 1-seeds, Dan Hurley & co. actually have the toughest path to Arizona. A win over Stetson rewards them with a feisty match-up vs. Florida Atlantic or Northwestern. Yet another victory and Connecticut would likely face an imposing Auburn squad. And a win in the Sweet Sixteen could set up a battle between the Big Ten or Big 12 tournament champions: Illinois and Iowa State.

UConn is an unstoppable force seeking to overcome an immovable historic trend. Something’s gotta give.

Houston

“We’re not always pretty, but last time I checked it’s not a beauty contest” – Houston coach Kelvin Sampson

Houston has transformed into a perennial powerhouse over the past decade plus. Sampson built a program that insists on being the bully, not the bullied. You know the formula at this point: they smother you on defense, crash the glass on every shot, and shoot the lights out when they’re playing downhill.

Despite their familiar year-over-year persona, you really can’t simulate what it’s like to play them. There is a reason why Houston’s only bad loss came against an Iowa State team that had already seen them twice. The good news for the Cougars? They won’t have to see a repeat opponent until the Elite Eight at the earliest.

Houston had high hopes transitioning into the Big 12 but they’ve exceeded expectations with the season they’ve strung together. The Cougars own the most Quad 1 wins in the country, the most weeks ranked #1 on KenPom, BartTorvik, and EvanMiya.com, and the number one defense as far as points allowed per game. While elite defense has been their perennial calling card, the emergence of a three-headed backcourt is the real attribute that gives Houston a chance to cut down the nets in April.

L.J. “the town” Cryer is the straw that stirs the drink. A senior transfer by the way of Baylor, Cryer has evolved into one of the elite perimeter players in the nation. He has the clutch gene, is lethal from three, and garners the experience necessary to keep his team connected during tense tournament moments. His running mate Jamal Shead is equally brilliant on offense, doubling as a lockdown defender who can switch and rebound well above his size. And in recent months, sophomore Emanuel Sharp joined the party with a steady jump shot, shifty dribble, and an imposing will.

He doesn’t stuff the stat sheet in the same ways as that trio, but the x-factor for the Cougars is probably four-year center J’Wan Roberts. Roberts has been the bridge between Houston’s 2021 final four team and the current roster. He is Sampson personified on the floor but he enters the tournament nursing a knee injury. His health could determine the fate of their title hopes.

Compared to their top seeded counterparts, Houston plays at a much slower pace. If opponents can speed them up and jump on them early, they stand a chance at keeping things competitive. But that rarely happens. There was a two-week stretch back in February where Houston never trailed in a game. And when it’s close in crunch time, they hardly ever lose.

Houston leads the nation in 10-0 runs. They are trained assassins and Longwood should be terrified.

Purdue

UConn’s intrigue to repeat aside, Purdue is the centerpiece of the 2024 tournament narrative. On the wrong side of history last year after a stunning upset to 16-seed Fairleigh Dickinson, the Boilermakers entered this season with a dream to redeem. Zach Edey, the 2023 National Player of the Year, will soon become the 2024 National Player of the Year. After entering the previous tournament 29-5, Purdue joins the fray this Friday sitting at 29-4.

The last time a #1 seed lost to a 16, they followed it up with a championship that won Evan lots of money. So there’s definitely a path for the Boilermakers to make some noise in Phoenix.

Purdue always wins the foul and free throw battles. They possess supreme depth and experience and, thanks to this improved year-over-year experience, some of last season’s weaknesses are now plausible strengths. Braden Smith and Fletcher Loyer both took crucial leaps from their freshman to sophomore seasons; their collective gains in experience yielded improved shooting and a quicker tempo, which has helped Zach Edey become even more absurdly dominant. Toss in Southern Illinois transfer Lance Jones, sprinkle in forwards Trey Kaufman-Renn and Mason Gillis, and balance those top 6 with savvy vets Caleb Furst and Ethan Morton, and you start to get the picture why this team is capable of winning six straight.

Purdue posted the best winning percentage against Quad 1 teams this season. They aren’t overwhelmingly physical, but they play tough and are always ready for a dog fight. They are a safe bet to avoid further first-round embarrassment, and they’re absolutely the kind of team that could become more dominant as the tournament progresses.

Tennessee

Tennessee is really good. It’s possible they have the makings of really great. Rick Barnes’ team features a top 5 defense per usual, but the real difference this season has been a much improved offensive attack. It starts with #3 in orange – Dalton Knecht. Knecht is one of the best stories of 2023-2024. He initially attended junior college before receiving a scholarship to Northern Colorado, where he took a major leap between his junior and senior seasons to bolster his points per game from 8.9 to 20.2. Lucky for Tennessee, Dalton Knecht took advantage of his ‘covid-year’ eligibility and transferred to Knoxville, where he proceeded to take an even bigger leap this season into stardom.

Just watch this guy on film for more than five seconds. He is an ideal NBA archetype: tall with an electric wing-scoring game. He can hit shots from anywhere on the court. And you do not want to be in his way when he’s charging towards the basket.

Last year, Tennessee overcame an injury to their starting point guard to reach the Sweet 16 before colliding with Florida Atlantic’s hurricane run. Starting PG Zakhi Zeigler returned with a clean bill of health this season and the Vols haven’t looked back.

Tennessee gets fairly consistent balance from its supporting cast. Seven of their players clock at least 17.5 minutes per game and notch five points or more. They’re built well in the front court. They’re built well in the back court. They are the epitome of an inside-outside threat that has no true weaknesses when they are clicking.

The Volunteers’ only relevant area of concern is that they tend to allow a lot of three point attempts. Pair that with a lot of made three point attempts, and you have yourself a predicament there. Luckily, Tennessee’s upgraded offensive firepower sets them apart from Volunteers of past. Their defense remains impressive as ever.

Marquette

Marquette lurks somewhat quietly as a 2-seed. Shaka Smart is a generational coach who has assembled a team of winners. Marquette retained nearly all of its impactful talent from last year (despite losing an NBA prospect) and features the best backcourt/frontcourt duo between Tyler Kolek and Oso Iguodaro.

The Golden Eagles have four players averaging 11 points or more, including a handsome 17 ppg from top-scorer Kam Jones. To state plainly: if your leading scorer is your third best option, you’re doing pretty well for yourself. Marquette put its depth and connectivity on full display in the Big East Tournament where they managed to reach the finals without Tyler Kolek logging a minute of playing time.

Kolek has been nursing a lingering oblique issue but will be at full-tilt come Friday at 2 pm. If he returns as healthy as he hopes to be, the sky is the limit for these guys. Coaching, guard play and toughness are all attributes of a Final Four team. Marquette has these intangibles and might be saving its best for last.

Arizona

Lest us forget that in the all-determining Week 6 AP Poll, Arizona ranked #1. They went cold for a while in January but have (mostly) looked the part since February. This year’s Wildcats team bears some similarity to last year’s squad in the sense that it is an offensive howitzer. However, their much-improved defense separates them from their predecessors.

You gotta give a lot of love to Caleb Love for putting the Wildcats in the position they currently sit. Love transferred from North Carolina after a disastrous season which saw the preseason #1 team fail to reach the tournament. Ever since he traded Chapel Hill for Tucson, it’s been sunny skies for his current and former squads (exhibit B: North Carolina is a 1-seed this year).

The Wildcats are inconsistent at times but they have a relatively deep rotation with great front-court size and strength, coupled with timely perimeter shooting. Seven players including forward Keshad Johnson, who played a crucial role in San Diego State’s finals run last year, shoot north of 30% from three. Look for sophomore center Oumar Ballo to make a statement in the paint this tournament. He doesn’t just block shots, he destroys them.

The Wildcats are 18-1 when they get double-digit scoring from guard Kylan Boswell. If he plays like he did against teams like Duke, Alabama, Wisconsin, Colorado, and Oregon this season, Arizona has a real chance to reach familiar Glendale for the Final Four. And at that point, with the hometown crowd at their backs, you’d have to consider them a favorite.

Auburn

Auburn has won its first round game in every tournament appearance since 1985. It enters this year’s dance as the most reliable 4-seed and features enough talent to win it all.

Auburn started the season 16-2 before hitting a wall in January and February. The Tigers have been back to their winning ways ever since the calendar turned to March, culminating with a dominant SEC tournament championship game performance vs. Florida.

This team is DEEP. Ten players average 10+ minutes of playing time and nine of those guys shoot the long ball at 30%+ clip. No one is a slouch on defense, particularly KD Johnson: the Marcus Smart of college hoops. Akin to Smart, Johnson is due for a few head scratching turnovers but he makes up for these with dazzling defensive pressure and sheer will. He’s exactly the guy you want diving on the floor for a 50-50 ball in the final minutes.

Johni Broome, now two years into a high-major system, is a force to be reckoned with in the front court (16 points, 8 rebounds, 2 blocks, 1 steal per game). Freshman phenom Aden Holloway hasn’t always posted the gaudy stats that scouts expected, but he nonetheless possesses the raw talent and instincts necessary as a difference-maker in March. Upperclassmen Jaylin Williams, Chad Baker-Mazara, and Denver Jones all contribute with timely buckets and stout stops.

The Tigers are physical and athletic. They can adapt to a contrast of styles, making them an ideal candidate for a deep tournament run. They bury teams who let them get off to hot starts, and can claw their way back in a bar fight.

Auburn also shines from an x’s and o’s standpoint. Bruce Pearl’s team is the best in the country at taking away inbound passes and they run elite sets on the offensive end. UConn is far from a lock to out-duel the Tigers in a possible Sweet Sixteen showdown.

Iowa State

The Cyclones have been one hell of a story since the start of the 2023-2024 season. Despite being picked to finish 7th in the Big 12 pre-season poll, they ended conference play in second place behind Houston. Iowa State collided with Houston for a third time in the Big 12 championship game and let’s just say they did not disappoint. The Cyclones bested Kelvin Sampson & co. in a 69-41 shellacking.

Individually, none of Iowa State’s players jump off the stat sheet. Keshon Gilbert, their leading scorer, averages a modest 14 points per game. But this team doesn’t need to be special on offense to yield elite results because their defense and consistency gives them a shot against anyone.

The Cyclones have been able to dictate the style and pace of the game in just about all of their match-ups this season. No one’s going to sneak up on these guys. If you want to beat them, you’ll have to snatch victory right out of their hands.

Look for Tamin Lipsey to shine in the limelight this weekend. Lipsey is a special point guard ,with local roots in Ames, who is poised to make a name for himself nationally.

Illinois

Illinois is a wagon. Their roster highlights a level of depth and experience that few tournament teams can match, and features nine upperclassmen. The four players who see the most minutes – Terrance Shannon Jr, Marcus Domask, Coleman Hawkins, and Quincy Guerrier – are all seniors.

Shannon and Domask composite arguably the most electric backcourt in the country. Shannon has notched 25+ points on eleven occasions thus far while Domask has put up 15+ in 21 games. Coach Brad Underwood surrounds these stars with a steady diet of Coleman Hawkins (12.4 ppg, 6.2 rpg, 37% from three) and Quincy Guerrier (10 ppg, 6 rpg, 39% from three), along with a slew of supporting cast mates who each contribute 6+ ppg off of efficient shooting.

And don’t forget about Dain Dainja, the best name in the game and one of the elite paint presences this tournament will witness. Dainja isn’t towering – he’s 6’9″ – but his 270 pound bowling-ball stature makes him tough to get a body on. His game-to-game numbers don’t fly off the stat sheet but he almost always gives Illinois 10+ points when he logs 10+ minutes. In a tournament setting, vets like Dainja will become a rotational priority.

Underwood calls his current iteration of the Illini the most connected team he has ever coached. Their chemistry, balance, star power and athleticism make will them an extremely tough out.

The Pretenders

Pretender – /prəˈtendər/ – A team seeded 1-4 with the best chance of an early exit.

Kansas

Kansas might have the best starting five in the entire tournament. They also have one of the worst benches. Jayhawk starters account for 65.8 of the teams’ 75.3 points per game. Poor bench production is the reason why Kansas suffered 8 conference losses for the first time ever under Bill Self.

It’s easy to see this team’s upside. The Jayhawks lead Division 1 with a 70% assist rate and feature a quartet of big-time talent in Kevin McCullar Jr., Hunter Dickinson, K.J. Adams Jr., and Dajuan Harris. Harris and Adams have championship rings in their names while McCullar and Dickinson boast All-American accolades.

Akin to years prior, Kansas took care of business in Lawrence and lost only one game at home all season. They were a .500 team in road/neutral site environments. Trust them in the tournament at your own peril.

…and as I finish writing this entry, my phone buzzes with breaking news: “Kansas star Kevin McCullar Jr. is out for the tournament with a knee injury.” Pour one out for Bill Self.

UNC

Year three for Hubert Davis has been a straighter path compared to his first two seasons at the helm. In year one, UNC had a mostly forgettable regular season before stringing together a tournament run that positioned them 20 minutes away from a national championship. Unfortunately, the Tar Heels blew a 15-point halftime lead and came up a hair short against Kansas. Year two was a see-saw season for the opposite reason: North Carolina entered their 2022-2023 campaign as the #1 team in the nation…only to fall out of the rankings by January and miss last year’s post-season altogether.

Cue this year’s squad, whose balanced blend of key returnees, coupled with a few fresh faces, has steadied the ship from November to March. UNC’s most storied returnees are RJ Davis and Armando Bacot. Both players assumed major roles during the 2022 championship run and both will be essential for 2024 title contention. Simply put, RJ Davis is “the guy.” He has eclipsed 20 points in twenty games this season, including four 30-point outbursts. Armando Bacot hasn’t been quite as dominant as Davis from a game-to-game standpoint, but he nonetheless remains their emotional leader and front court catalyst. Stanford transfer Harrison Ingram mans the forward position alongside Bacot and has served as another steady presence down low. The Tar Heels have also reaped the benefits of newcomer Cormac Ryan, another transfer by way of Notre Dame who has lethal size for a shooter of his ilk.

UNC is really good, but I’m hesitant they’ll ever make the leap to ‘great’. They only lost seven games this season but scraped by on more than a few close calls amidst an ACC that’s seen more competitive days. The Tar Heels tend to play up and down to their competition; I’m concerned they’ll be locked in a competitive battle from the round of 32 onwards. At some point they might fly too close to the sun and get burned.

Duke

Duke began the 2023-2024 as a national title favorite. Four months later, their tournament forecast is a bit murkier. What the masses assumed would materialize this season hasn’t quite happened yet: veterans Kyle Filipowski and Jeremy Roach have been solid but not stellar; rising sophomores Tyrese Proctor and Mark Mitchell have been consistently inconsistent.

The lone bright spot as far as expectations are concerned has been the play of freshman guard Jared McCain. McCain is an elusive scorer who has registered double digits in 19 of the past 24 games. He has the propensity to catch fire from long range. When he’s hot, Duke is scorching. When he’s cold, Duke has holes. That’s a lot of pressure for a freshman who was supposed to be the 6th or 7th most important player on the Blue Devils’ depth chart.

If the Blue Devils wish to live up to their pre-season hype, they’ll need more from their top four. Filipowski will have to carry the load for a shallow front court and stay out of foul trouble in crunch time. Mitchell will have to cash in on his free throws and box out opponents who are above his weight class. Roach and Proctor will have to take care of the rock and hit timely shots. All of these players have demonstrated these attributes, but rarely has it all clicked within the same game.

Duke has the talent to go far, but their inconsistencies might haunt them.

Baylor

Baylor is often a treat to watch on offense (38th in points scored) but a trick to witness on the other end (134th in points allowed). Scott Drew’s squad features a blend of raw youth and tested vets. Six players average double figures and five of those six shoot the lights out from three.

The lone non-threat from the perimeter is very much their primary threat in the interior: Yves Missi. As is the case with fellow freshman Ja’Kobe Walter, Missi is poised to make a lot of money in the Association next year. In the meantime, he looks to dominate tournament play as a freakishly athletic 7-footer with an unrelenting motor. This guy is flat out explosive at times, and Baylor will have to lean heavily on his fireworks if they hope to endure March and early April.

The aforementioned Ja’Kobe Walter is slated to go ahead of Missi in the 2024 NBA Draft. Walter’s game is smooth as a baby’s bottom and he possesses a killer instinct that’s rare for someone his age. RayJ Dennis, Jayden Nunn and Langston Love all add their fair share of shot-making and court vision within what is objectively a loaded backcourt. Additionally, senior forward Jalen Bridges stirs it all together with a Swiss Army Knife of interior and perimeter skills.

I don’t have a problem with teams whose best players are freshman entering March Madness. I don’t necessarily have a problem with teams whose elite offense can be compromised by a mediocre-at-best D. I do have a problem with both of those factors compounding as the tournament progresses.

Kentucky

Much of what was written about Baylor applies to Kentucky. Calipari’s Cats are brimming with youth and athleticism. They are fun as hell on offense but they are porous at times on defense. Top to bottom, there is not a more talented roster in the tournament field: this team is projected to produce two Top-5 draft picks and five NBA selections overall.

Kentucky doesn’t rely on one guy to get the job done. Nine players score 5+ points per game and five average more than a dozen. They can all rebound, they can all run, they can all pass, and they can all shoot. Only the Crimson Tide averaged more points per game than Big Blue.

Opponents will need to keep a close eye on Reed Sheppard (55%), Rob Dillingham (45%) and Antonio Reeves (44%) when they spot up from three. Kentucky is also excellent at drawing fouls and netting free throws, so it’s a pick-your-poison for defenses.

It’s an entirely different story on Kentucky’s defensive end. The Wildcat’s D ranks a horrendous 320th nationally. They’ve been a tad more reliable on that end of the floor of late, but it’s been over a month since they’ve held an opponent under 70 points.

The Wildcats are must-see TV with a ceiling as high as a national title and a floor as low as a first-round upset. Get your popcorn ready. Thursday is going to be interesting, one way or another.

Alabama

Alabama entered the 2023-2024 season as one of the biggest question marks in the sport. They lost a lot of talent to the NBA draft, including #2 overall selection Brandon Miller, and shopped liberally in the transfer portal. When the dust settled last fall, the Crimson Tide landed South Dakota State’s Grant Nelson, Hofstra/Oregon/Saint Peter’s journeyman Aaron Estrada, and Cal State Fullerton’s Latrell Wrightsell. Early returns weren’t perfect across November and December – Alabama lost three close games in a row to the likes of tournament foes Purdue, Creighton, and Arizona – but ultimately the Tide turned the ship around to win 10 of their next 11.

Bama climbed all the way to a #13 ranking by the second half of February, at which point more than a few members of the national media wondered if they could surge all the way to a 1-seed. That’s precisely when the team’s prosperity took a turn for the worse. Alabama enters the tournament having lost 4 of its last 6.

This feels like a classic example of ‘team peaked at the wrong time.’ We know Alabama can score – they dropped a nation-leading 91 points per game – but pedestrian defense renders them vulnerable for an upset.

Mark Sears is the name to know on Nate Oats’ roster. He’s an elite scorer and visionary floor general capable of taking over any game. If Bama ends up proving haters like me wrong, Sears’ finger prints will be all over his team’s prosperity.

Creighton

This year’s Creighton team reminds me of last year’s Miami Hurricanes: they can beat anyone (as Miami did en route to a Final Four) but they can also lose to anyone (as Miami almost did in their first round match-up against Drake). There’s a lot to like about the Blue Jays on paper. They score in bunches. They’re top ten in threes made per game. They take care of the ball. They boast a top 25 offense and defense. And with the exception of Steven Ashworth, their starting line-up has great size across the board.

I buy Creighton’s mental toughness; I just don’t buy their physical toughness. I buy Creighton’s starting line-up; I just don’t buy their bench. I buy Creighton’s experience; I just don’t buy their athleticism.

If Creighton escapes a feisty Akron Zips squad they will be difficult to prepare for with 48 hours’ notice. Greg McDermott schemes well and puts his players in positions to succeed. But if an opponent pushes Creighton off their spots and limits the damage from the big three (Ryan Kalkbrenner, Baylor Scheierman, and Trey Alexander), things could get dicey.

Steven Ashworth is the wild card for this team. When he’s playing well, Creighton is tough to outscore because of their embarrassment of riches re: perimeter shooting. But when Ashworth goes cold, Creighton’s offense becomes stagnant and teams take advantage of his size on the defensive end.

The Blue Jays were a fraction of a second away from reaching the Final Four last year. Will this tournament serve as their redemption tour? I’m not so sure.

Sleeping Giants:

High-majors seeded 6+ that are poised to make noise 

Oregon

Dana Altman’s teams have been somewhat dormant in recent years, but these Ducks are eager to finally quack back. Oregon enters the tournament winners of four in a row with a clean bill of health for the first time this season.

N’Faly Dante and Kwame Evans are a nightmare to score on in the paint. Jackson Shelstead pushes the pace with road-running speed and crafty handles. Jermaine Couisnard is as cool as the other side of the pillow when he gets separation or finds a driving line. Oregon has the pieces to win in a tournament setting and they’re clicking at the right time. Don’t be surprised if the Ducks are still dancing by the second weekend.

Nebraska

Nebraska’s roster is loaded with gamers. Keisei Tominaga (pictured here doing his best impression of my 17-month-old daughter when I try telling her she can’t have another cracker) is an absolute treat to witness when he’s feeling it from behind the arc.

Fred Hoiberg appears to have found something in this team. Fresh off a hefty extension, Hoiberg is riding the momentum that comes with the Corn Huskers’ first tournament appearance in a decade. His guys have been playing with house money since November and it continues to pay dividends.

But seriously, do not leave Tominaga open for three; he is insane! Like, I’m talking Steph Curry if Steph Curry celebrated with 500% more enthusiasm.

Tominaga is good. This roster is good. They’ll be a tough out.

Northwestern

Woo-ee, Boo Buie. I would HATE to be matched up with these guys in round one…but then again, these guys would hate to be matched up with a team like Florida Atlantic. Wonder who each of those teams are playing?

People seem to forget that Northwestern has been good for a while. Slowly but surely, Chris Collins has turned this team around over the past decade. In 2016-2017 he coached the Wildcats to their best record since pre-World War II. And in each of the past two seasons, Northwestern has beaten a #1 team in the country; both times it was Purdue.

Buie does it all for this team (19 points, 3 rebounds, 5 assists, and 1 steal per game) and he’s complemented by a duo of reliable guards in Brooks Barnhizer and Ryan Langborg. Northwestern’s front court isn’t much to write home about on offense, but their big men pull enough weight on defense to balance the equation.

If the Wildcats advance in this tournament they will have to do so without senior guard Ty Berry, who suffered a season-ending injury in February. Since Berry’s sidelining, Northwestern has been up and down. They played Wisconsin close for 30+ minutes in the Big Ten Tournament before fading late, and come Friday you can probably count on them keeping it close until the bitter end.

Cinderellas

Mid-majors seeded 5+ with the best shot at a Sweet 16 run 

James Madison

This is not your great-great-great-grandfather’s James Madison. These Dukes are bred for the modern age. JMU kicked off the season guns blazing with a stunning road win over then top-5 Michigan State and never looked back. They are one of four teams entering the tournament with 30+ wins and feature a collection of players who are not afraid of the moment. Eight players see at least 20 minutes per game and notch at least 6.5 points, including the Dukes’ tantalizing trio of Terrence Edwards Jr., TJ Bickerstaff, and Noah Freidel.

This is the 8th most experienced team in the country. Eleven of their guys average better than 30% from three. Good luck slowing these guys down if they can get off to a hot start vs. Wisconsin.

McNeese

“We lost 23 games last year and we’re gonna win 23 games this year.” – Will Wade during pre-season

Will Wade was wrong. His team didn’t just win 23 games; McNeese was another one of those four 30+ win teams I mentioned. The Cowboys spot a mid-major logo but their roster has plenty of high-major talent. Only four players began their careers with the Cowboys, and none of them are featured in the starting five. TCU transfer Shahada Wells promises to dazzle in Thursday’s match-up vs. the heavyweight Zags. Wells has fit immaculately into Wade’s new system, averaging 18 points, 5 assists, 3 steals, and 4.5 rebounds.

McNeese obliterated 95% of their opponents this season by an average of 19 points. They rely on five 40% three-point shooters and six of their guys average at least 1 steal per game. Plus, their defense ranks 4th in the nation in points allowed.

When asked about his team’s strength, Wade has been consistent in his response: “We just try to play harder than the opponent.” McNeese has the athleticism and experience to hang with any roster in the country. They can win multiple games in this tournament.

Drake

Drake is built for this moment. The Bulldogs feature an elite coach-son duo in Darian and Tucker DeVries. Tucker is an NBA talent with imposing size and relentless shotmaking ability. He basically does everything, averaging 22 points, 7 rebounds, 4 assists, and 1.6 steals.

The Bulldogs are deep and experienced. They’ve made the OVC championship four years running and are in the tournament for the second year in a row. Last season, Drake squandered a late 7-point lead over eventual Final Four participant Miami. Who knows what would have been had they lived to play another day. They enter the fold this season with hopes of reaching a 4th Sweet Sixteen in school history.

New Mexico

Toughness and speed are the Lobos’ hyphenated middle names. Richard Pitino’s roster features four double-digit scorers including NBA offspring Jaelen House (son of Eddie House) and Jamal Mashburn Jr. House is 12th in the nation in steals and brings instant offense and energy when his teams need a jolt. Marshburn poses as a similar scoring threat and keeps turnovers to a minimum despite a high usage rate.

The Lobos are no slouches in the front court, either. Nelly Jr. Joseph is a relentless post-up threat and his running mate JT Toppin earned Mountain West co-freshman of the year. New Mexico is fifth in the nation in paint points, tallying 50% of their scoring near the rim off of 45 two-point attempts per game (the most in the country). They pick and roll at an aggressive rate, which helps open up lanes and space shooters out. In an era where 3’s are at a premium, New Mexico bucks the trend with steady 2-point attack.

Don’t let these guys get hot; they will burn you. That’s exactly what they did to their competition amidst their Mountain West tournament run to capture the school’s first title since 2014. Clemson ought to be shaking in its boots.

Saint Mary’s

The Gaels struggled out of the gate but proceeded to dominate the WCC en route a regular reason and conference tournament title. If not for those early-season slip ups, this team might have earned a 3-seed. Their talent and depth spells trouble for the West Region.

Saint Mary’s operates a patient offense. All five starters share the love to average double digits; they take what defenses give them and frequently feature a different guy night-to-night. The Gaels’ poise is a byproduct of their experience. Five of their top seven are upperclassmen, including three seniors.

Mitchell Saxon is the senior to know. He’s a handful down low, serving as the team’s defensive anchor and offensive keystone. Junior guard Augustus Marcieulionis has a game that lives up to his name. He’s crafty, floats as a sturdy presence on defense, and is far more athletic than meets the eye. Sophomore guard Adin Mahaney is also a gifted contributor. Mahaney is Saint Mary’s highest rated prospect in school history and it’s easy to see why. Mahaney is poetry in motion and has ice in his veins for the biggest of moments.

FAU

FAU is another team whose potential spans an incredibly wide range of outcomes. The Owls proved last March and at times this season that they are capable of beating anyone. Back in December, Florida Atlantic outlasted Arizona in a double-OT thriller that was, for my money, the game of the year. Neither seem balked at their opponents’ kill shots, which led to an incredible back-and-forth battle between two explosive teams. Something tells me that FAU might be poised to participate in more games of this ilk in the coming days.

In an age where the transfer portal is as common as oxygen, Dusty May’s team bucks the trend. Florida Altantic is one of five teams in the country with zero transfers. You can’t buy that kind of continuity in this sport, especially for a team that experienced the highs and the lows of a Cinderella Final Four run last season.

FAU didn’t stick the landing during the back half of conference play, but one can’t help but wonder if they’re set to kick it into another gear for the tournament. This roster lives for high-stakes competition. Look for guard Johnell Davis and center Vladislav Goldin to make their mark against Northwestern on Friday. If they win, it’ll set up an epic showdown with UConn. Will Cinderella’s slipper fit as snug a year later?

Grand Canyon

Grand Canyon has been my Sweet Sixteen pick since June, but I’ll admit I cringed when I saw them matched up against Saint Mary’s on Friday. I still think the Lopes are capable of winning two games this tournament; it won’t be easy and it might not be pretty, but GCU has enough fight to make it happen.

My favorite thing about the Lopes is that they shoot free-throws at an elite level. Ten players on their roster are 75% or better from the line. That’s huge in a tournament setting, where the game slows down and fouls pile up in lieu of easy baskets.

Keep a watchful eye on Tyon Grant-Foster. Originally a Kansas recruit, Grant-Foster transferred to DePaul before collapsing on the court during a game in 2021 and being revived by one of the trainers. Two surgeries later, Grant-Foster has become the WAC Player of the Year and a top-40 scorer in the country. You can’t make this stuff up.

Colgate

Akin to Purdue, Colgate also relies on a star point guard named Braiden Smith (albeit with different spelling). The Red Raiders have been around the block: they’ve qualified for the tournament six years in a row and feature seven upperclassmen on this season’s roster.

Despite being a household name in the tournament of late, the Toothpaste Boys continue to fall under the national radar – even after dominating their competition within the Patriot League. Colgate won its league by six games and beat conference foes by average of 15 points.

Matt Langel’s squad will be ready for Friday’s fight against Baylor. Their balanced attack yields great shots both inside and outside the 3-point arc and their defense ranks 9th nationally in points allowed. Even against the Bear’s speed and athleticism, Colgate should be able to stick to a steady pace and control the flow of the game.

Samford

Samford is sneakily one of the deepest teams in the tournament. Ten players see the floor for north of 12 minutes per game. Four players average 11 points or more. Eleven players shoot at least 33% from three.

The Bulldogs shoot 39% from beyond the arc, good enough for eighth in the country, and they’re also 21st in 2-point percentage. Samford features the nation’s 14th-fastest attack and forces the 15th most turnovers. These attributes could yield huge dividends against a shorthanded Kansas roster that’s playing in high altitude.