Villanova
Villanova is as complete, if not more complete, than its 2016 National Championship team. They rank 2nd overall in adjusted efficiency, aka they are a top-tier team on both the offensive and defense ends. And when it comes to the offensive side of the ball, when this team plays its A game, no one is better at scoring than they are. Coach Jay Wright has built, in my opinion, the sturdiest formula for team success in the country. His program is stacked with three, four year guys who play for each other and fit the role they need to fit in order to benefit the team, not the individual. His best players are also his most humble, a tradition that inevitably gets passed down from one generation of recruits to the next.
So let me begin by telling you about these experienced stars for the Wildcats. It starts with junior guards Jalen Brunson, Mikal Bridges, and Phil Booth. They are all studs in their own who play within themselves to churn the most efficient offensive machine there is in the game. Jalen is the heart and soul of this squad, the leader of leaders who epitomizes the sense of humility I mentioned is part of Villanova’s DNA. Without losing this humility he has grown into arguably the best player in college basketball, with an innate ability to find teammates in space, create shots, and, when perfect defense is applied, find a way to score anyways. Then there’s Mikal Bridges, the next prototypical ‘Josh Hart’ or ‘Kris Jenkins’, who is one of the most talented two-way player in the hungry. A former under-recruited, redshirted freshmen, Bridges plays with a certain hunger you can’t teach and has used the chip on his shoulder to become on of the most physically gifted defenders there is. And then there’s Phil Booth, who managers the offense with total control, is a tremendous dribbler and shooter, and makes life difficult for opponents’ perimeter offense. I might add that Villanova spent a considerable amount of the season playing without him due to injuries. Who knows how many games they would have won with him healthy?
And then, of course, there’s the younger guys who have already caught the Nova fever. Sophomore guard Donte DiVinceno is one of my absolute favorites to watch. He’s everywhere on the court, with explosive quickness, an ability to get open shots with ease, and absolute swarming defense. Add freshmen phenom Omari Spellman to the mix, a 6’9” forward who shoots nearly 45% from three, grabs every rebound in sight, and has a killer post-up game, and you’re starting to see a team that has enough talent to overcome any natural flaws.
No team can match Nova shot-for-shot. Just ask Xavier, who has one of the best offenses in the country and lost to Nova by a combined 40 points in two games. The Wildcats move the ball beautifully and are a sight to behold as far as perimeter shooting. They are looking for their 2nd championship in three years, and have what some deem the easiest path to the final four.
Virginia
There’s really no team like Virginia – this season, and maybe ever. They hold their opponents to an average of 53 points per game and .83 points per possession, unprecedented figures in the modern era of basketball. They do with well-balanced, controlled press defense that forces a lot of turnovers and puts a lot of pressure on perimeter shooters without taking risks and leaving vulnerable pockets. Their offense complements this by controlling the pace and patiently waiting for the right shot each and every offensive possession. Some might be quick to label this as a boring group to watch, but with a closer look it’s clear that their fundamental approach is the most compelling thing about them.
Virginia is well-balanced in both their starting line-up and their bench, with a few players that stand out. Senior forward Isaiah Wilkins the consummate team player holding everything together. He brings relentless hustle on defense and unselfish awareness on offensive, and is certainly one of the best two-way players there is. Wilkins has long struggled with anxiety and depression, but has chosen to be open and transparent about this struggle. He has explained to the media that he wants to play an active part in helping reversing centuries old stereotypes about the way me should behave and deal with these issues.
Coach Tony Bennett is a defensive magician and has assembled a roster that may not be his most talented but is nonetheless his most complete.What’s compelling about this squad is that they have a great track record against fast teams. Their tenacious D held Rhode Island to 55 points, Virginia Tech to 52, Duke to 63, and North Carolina to 49.
It’s close to a guarantee that Cavaliers put up 60 points in any given tournament game. Good luck trying to match that.
Duke
Duke has an entire starting five of NBA talent, including lottery pick Marvin Bagley III, who reclassified at the end of last year in order to go to Duke one year ahead of schedule. Bagley is an impossible match-up for anyone’s standards. He uses his length to be fed the ball where only he can reach it and is a force to be reckoned with in the post, an effortless finisher who cleans up around the rim and is guaranteed to have a few put-back dunks every game. He is also an agile, cerebral player who passes well and shoots well away from the basket. There’s very little he can’t do with a basketball.
Senior forward Grayson Allen’s notoriety is well-documented by just about every fan base across the country, but I’m here to tell you that he’s actually kind of an awesome player to watch. He’s played this season scotch free of any tripping incidents and let his game speak for itself, loudly. He plays harder than anyone I’ve seen this year, with so much passion it’s a wonder how he doesn’t run out of gas. He is the epitome of clutch, and is virtually unstoppable when he’s hot.
And then there’s young talent like Gary Trent Jr and Wendell Carter, two players that we’d be talking a lot more about had they not spent most of the last six months in Marvin Bagley III’s shadow. Think of Trent Jr. as a shorter Jayson Tatum, with uncappable athleticism, great passer, lights out shooting from long range, and a lethal mid range turnaround. Wendell Carter complements this squad with strong finishing at the rim and a solid presence on defense.
This is yet another team that’s tough to beat when they’re at their best. What’s even scarier is that when they lost Bagley for a few games, they didn’t skip a beat. Duke is one of three teams in the country that is top 10 in both offensive and defensive efficiency. Most of their losses came by 5 points or less, so with a few different bounces this team would have the résumé of a #1 seed.
Purdue
Purdue is one of the most experienced teams in the country, starting four seniors who have a lot of chemistry together (not to mention a lot of wins). This team is so flexible in how they beat you thanks to its versatile inside-outside game; if you try and shut down one they will burn you with the other.
This versatility is epitomized through players like Isaac Haas and Carsen Edwards. Hass is a 7’2’’ monster who cannot be stopped down low thanks in large part to fantastic footwork and strength. He seems to win every rebounding battle, even when it’s 3-on-1, you can count on him to put back several and-1’s every game, which is essentially like having an extra three-point specialist on the team. Haas has elite court awareness and positioning, and adds to his inside finishing ability with an unstoppable turnaround jumper. Carsen Edwards is the lone non-senior starter who is arguably their best player. He is an All-American point guard who added much-needed starpower following the departure of Caleb Swanigan. Edwards is the kind of guard who can take a team far. He’s their engine, as the ball is in his hands more than anyone else’s, and he offers a dynamic ability to create (and make) shots off the dribble or create an open look for his teammates. Thanks in large part to his athleticism he plays bigger than he actually is. When he plays within himself this team is tough to beat. Guard Dakaota Mathius compliments the due of Edwards and Haas with lights-out shooting, a sneaky quickness to create space, and elite, in-your-face defense.
Purdue had convincing wins against the likes of Arizona, Butler, and Michigan this season. They do well against other big teams but their biggest team is when their opponents play small ball with mobile big men who can hit shots from the perimeter, forcing Haas into defensive mismatches off of screens. We saw this in the Big Ten tournament finals against Michigan. Overall there’s a lot to like about this experienced squad, who is balanced enough to avoid having any off nights and has the star power to beat you even you’re your hot.
Michigan State
This is your prototypical Tom Izzo squad, a balanced team full of stars and depth. If their roster was a report card they’d get an A on their inside game, their outside game, the starters, the bench, their youth, their experience, and their coaching. Tom Izzo brings a title contender to March each and every season, and his track record along with this team’s completeness makes them poisted for a deep run.
The Spartans are led by four players – Cassius Winston, Miles Bridges, Jaren Jackson Jr. and Nick Ward – who ranked among the Big Ten’s top 16 in Win Shares according to Sports-Reference.com. Miles Bridges will be a lottery pick in the NBA draft. He is a 6’7’’ small forward who brings legitimate star power to the table. He has incredible play-making ability anywhere on the floor, has the strength to out-muscle bigger players, and the shooter’s touch to take over a game. He made 40% from threes in Big Ten player and is the kind of player where you could play 29 seconds of perfect defense and he’ll still burn you at the end of the shot clock. Freshmen Jaren Jackson Jr. will be another lottery pick in the draft. He’s a 6’11’ forward who can hit shouts from anywhere on the court, and is one of the best-two way players in the country. He won Big Ten defensive player of the year as a freshman. Add in Nick Ward, who leads the nation in offensive rebounding, and Cassius Winston, a floor general averaging 7 assists per game, and you’re looking at a squad that is hard to top talent-wise.
The Spartans shoot over 41% from three and play the nation’s best defense inside the arc. They are one of three teams to be in the top ten in offensive and defense efficiency. Statistically speaking they are the most accomplished team in the last 10 years not to receive a 1 or 2 seed, as they finished 4th overall in strength of schedule and have a slew of quality wins against high-achieving tournament teams. Watch out for Sparty.
North Carolina
The defending champion Tar Heels look to reach the finals for their third year in a row. They are arguably the most experienced and achieving active roster, winners of 11 of their last 12 NCAA tournament games. They are also undeniably battle-tested this season, as they played the toughest schedule in the nation according to KenPom.com. North Carolina’s strengths are their pace, rebounding, interior passing, and wing scoring. They play as fast as any team in the country, rank second overall in offensive rebounding, grabbing almost 40% of their shots, pass the ball just as effective in the post as they do on the perimeter, and have the greatest impact from their wings.
This year’s squad features one of the country’s deadliest two-man scoring combos in Joel Berry and Luke Maye. A former walk-on turned star, forward Luke May is one of the most impactful players you’ll find. He is an elite rebounder who is as effective on the perimeter as he is down low, shooting almost 50% from three and possessing an innate ability to get open off of ball screens. Joel Berry might be the best tournament player in the country, a quintessential winning point guard who can dictate the pace, dribble and move with the ball until the offense is set, hit contested shots and has a knack for finishing at the rim. Add in the likes of forward Theo Pinson, a fast-break machine with point guard-guard vision with penetrating, a killer floater, and a strong finisher, Cam Johnson and Kenny Williams, two of the best wing scorers in the country, and freshman Garrison Brooks, a strong, athletic, long 6’9’’ forward can bring down the house with his dunking ability, and you’re looking at a team that can beat anyone in the country when they’re at their best.
And therein lies the challenge with sizing up this year’s squad, because, quite frankly, they haven’t always played well. North Carolina had an up and down season, losing 10 games in total, seven of which were in conference play. They can get cold from behind the arc and only shoot 35% from three as a team, thus making them one of the most “good when they make shots, bad when they don’t” teams in recent memory. While they are tremendous at both offensive and defensive rebounding, they do not boast elite perimeter defense and allowed opponents to shoot 40% from three. Despite these shortcomings, they looked good in their conference tournament and behind the experience of Roy Williams are poised to make a deep run.
Michigan
Winners of their last twelve games, Michigan is without a doubt one of the hottest teams in the country. They beat the likes of Purdue and Michigan State to win their conference tournament, and looked good particularly in the 2nd half of their round 1 tournament game against Montana. The Wolverines made a surprising run in last year’s tournament and despite losing a few experienced stars are poised to do it again. John Belein deserves to labeled one of the best coaches in college basketball, as he has a knack for player development and fitting in new pieces to the same effective system. Similar to last year’s squad, this year’s wolverines are one of the most athletic groups you’ll see, nearly impossible to guard off the dribble with a great pick-and-role game, reliable wing scoring, an abundance of playmakers, and a strong emphasis on tough, team defense.
Senior guard Muhammad-Ali Abdur-Rahkman leads this balanced group. He is a great ball-handler and a clutch shooter. He showcases an incredible combination of composure and aggression, as he moves patiently in order to create space for himself and teammates and brings the same effort from the minute they start practice as in a game. This dude has a knack for finding shots. He’ll time cuts perfectly, pump fake you out of your shoes, take a clever dribble step-back to create space, and nail a three before you have time to realize what’s happened. Equally hard to stop is junior forward Moritz ‘Mo’ Wagner, a stretch big man who can hit the three and who plays with a passion unmatched by anyone not named Grayson Allen. Guard Xavier Simpson is a spitting image of last year’s Wolverines star Derrick Walton. I have yet to see a defender who can stay behind him, as he tears defenses apart with his quickness, ability to get to the rim, gorgeous crossover, and eyes-in-the-back-of-his head passing. And then there’s experienced vets like Duncan Robinson, a senior who fits the flex big man archetype, lanky but strong and always in control. Robinson is shooting 50% from three in his last twelve games.
These guys are a tough draw for any opponent, as they have the athleticism, depth, talent, and defensive grit to compete with any other team in the country. I wouldn’t bet against them anytime soon.
Gonzaga
Gonzaga is fresh off their most successful year in school history, where they made an incredible run all the way to the tournament finals. Coming in to this season it was unclear if they would be able to replicate this success, as the Bulldogs had to replace five of their top six scorers. And then they did so without blinking. Perhaps it’s a less of a surprise when you consider that their coach, Mark Few, has the highest winning percentage in college basketball among active coaches and has reached the West Coast Conference championship game in all 21 years as a coach. Is anyone more consistent than this guy?
This year’s Zags move the ball extremely well, and shoot it even better. They are a great transition team, capitalizing off of turnovers by pushing the ball up for a dribble-drive, kick-out, and quick shot. Everyone is active on offense and their movement wears you down. They play the game the right way, rarely committing turnovers and matching their high-octane offense with swarming team defense. They have nine players who shoot over 40% from the field and shoot 50% as a team, and their defense held opponents to 43.3% shooting inside the arc, ranking sixth in the country in this metric.
Gonzaga has a rare asset of three big, highly talented forwards by the names of Rui Hachimura, Kevin Tillie, and Jonathan Williams. Williams is a 6’9’’ forward equipped to guard any position. He is a top ten rebounder with a tremendous left-hand shot fake and down-low finishing ability. Kevin Tillie is a 6’11’’ NBA prospect who brings both size and range, shooting 50% from three. At one point in the conference tournament he made 15 consecutive three pointers. What other big man can do that? 6’8’’ sophomore Rui Hachimura adds to the equation with wing scoring and tremendous strength down low. The talent of these three big men is undeniable, and complemented by elite guard play from the likes of Josh Perkins and Zach Norvell. Perkins has superhuman court awareness and boats a beautiful eurostep, step-back, and spin-move. Norvell is a spot-up three point shooter that will bury your team if you keep leaving him open.
Despite all of the roster turnover, Gonzaga deserves to be on the short list of possible national champions. Dick Vitale calls them Spurt City, thanks to their ability to build a 15-point lead in the span of minutes. This is one of the hottest teams in the country that continues to get better every game they play. Scary to think how could they’ll become if they make it into the 2nd weekend.
Kansas
Kansas extended their own record of Big 12 titles, winners of the conference 14 years in a row. The streak began two years before the release of first iPhone. Bill Self has proven time and time again that he knows how to build a winning program, but despite regular-season and conference tournament succeed, Self only has one national championship to show for it. Could this year change all of that?
If it does, it will be the most unorthodox squad to do so. Kansas did not enter the season as highly-acclaimed as usual, and yet they boasted as successful a season as they’ve ever had. The Jayhawks feature a unique four-guard system with one big man, Udoka Azubuike, who carries the weight inside. Azubuike is the team’s most important asset in the paint. He is a 7-foot, 280-pound beast who is superb on the boards and a match-up nightmare for any interior player. Kansas relies heavily on Azubuike’s presence, as he leads the team in plus/minus. The Jayhawks’ best overall player, however, is Devonte Graham. Graham is a four-year guy who you could make a strong case for National Player of the year. He averaged over 17 points and 7 assists and shoots 42% from behind the arc. Graham will beat you with a steady diet of threes and fast-break buckets, and is the kind of player who is best when the lights shine brightest. Graham and Azubuike are complimented by players like Sviatoslav Mykhailiuk, a 6’8’’ senior guard who is an elite shoot with a lethal pump fake, and Legerald Vick, a junior guard with Terry Rozier-like athleticism.
This is an explosive offensive team with a lot of winning experience. You won’t be able to stop them from putting up points, but you will be able to score on them due to their unbalanced frontcourt. To make matters dicey, Azubuike missed the conference tournament with a sprained ACL. They will need him healthy if they want to make a deep run.