The Cinderellas

 

Belmont Bruins

I was ecstatic to see Belmont make the cut as one of the last at-large teams. The Bruins notched 26 wins in a very competitive Ohio Valley Conference and actually beat out Murray State for the regular season league title. They were neck and neck with Ja Morrant’s Racers in the OVC title game last week until the final minutes, and you could make a strong argument that they would have won had their 6’1″ center Nick Musynzski been healthy enough to play. Musynznski was the OVC Freshman of the year, averaging 15 points and leading the league in both field-goal percentage and blocks per game, and made a huge  impact when he returned to Tuesday night’s victory over Temple.

Rick Byrd is one of the most tenured coaches in college basketball. In 33 seasons at Belmont he now has over 800 career victories to his name, and leads a very deep and diverse roster into the tournament riding momentum and house money. Belmont’s best player, Dylan Windler, is one of the more underrated draft prospects. Featuring a smooth stroke a quick release, Windler is a tall guard that can take over both in the frontcourt and backcourt. He led the OVC is both points and rebounds per game.  Don’t let their 11 seed line fool you: this was the 2nd highest scoring team in Division 1 and the 4th best shooting team, hitting 50% of their shots. Watch out, Maryland.

 

Murray State Racers

Led by lottery pick Ja Morrant, Murray State will be an extremely tough out. Morrant leads the nation in assists and changes speeds better than anyone in the league. He is a rare combination of freakish athlete meets court vision savant, and supporting cast makes him that much more lethal, with three other players who average double figures. The Racers haven’t lost a game since January 31st, and look to keep the streak going against a Marquette squad that has hit a rough patch of late.

 

Buffalo Bulls 

Every year I make a point to pick ‘my team’ in November. That way, no one can call me out for jumping on any bandwagons. Last year my team was Loyola-Chicago. Years before that (prior to Brad Stevens) it was Butler. This year, it’s the Buffalo Bulls. Buffalo is dangerous for just about every reason you could give about a potential Cinderella. They have the experience, the coach,  the physical talent, the balance, and they’ve proven it in the past. A year ago they absolutely smoked De’Andre Ayton and the highly favored Arizona Wildcats in the first round, and this year’s team is even better.

Led by seniors CJ Massinburg, Nick Perkins, and Jeremy Harris, their strength lies in their positionless threats. Rather than having a clear discrepancy in size and skills, all of their starters 1-5 are strong, 6’7″-ish players who can dominate inside and out, run with the fastest teams in the country, share the ball, and turn a broken play into a golden one.

 

UC Irvine Anteaters

Watch out for the Anteaters, who boast the most road wins in the country and are 9-0 in games decided by 5 points or fewer. They have four players whose fathers excelled at the highest level in college ball: Spencer Rivers (son of Doc Rivers), JC Butler, (son of Caron Butler), Max Hazaard, and Collin Welp. This is a team with tremendous depth that can beat you in so many different ways. Each game they are a chameleon – they’ll win it in a defensive slugfest one night and a fast-paced shoot-out in another. UC Irvine won their three conference tournament games by a combined 55 points and enter the Big Dance possessing the nation’s longest winning streak.

 

Utah State Aggies

If you love team basketball, this is the squad to watch come tournament time. These guys are elite at passing and moving off the ball, both on offense and defense. This translates to open shots, turnover-free basketball on offense,  a barrage of  forced turnovers on defense, and a whole lot of offensive rebounds. Two great players, 6’11” freshman forward Neemias Queta and senior star point guard Sam Merrill, lead this deep team into March Madness with a ton of grit and conference. Craig Smith’s squad understands how much of a grind March is – they literally keep a gas tank on their bench signed by all of the players, and the tank is always full. I’ve got my eyes on fan favorite Justin Bean, a red shirt walk-on who wears his emotions on his sleeve and won the team’s annual slam dunk contest on their first day of practice.

 

 Wofford Terriers

This team reminds me of Steph Curry’s Davidson squad of old, except they have a whole slew of shooters instead of just one. Their closest counterpart to Curry is Fletcher Magee, an elite 3-point shooter with a lightning-fast release. Magee has an uncanny ability to shoot from anywhere and in any position – it doesn’t even matter if he feet are square to the basketball.  Magee shoots 46% from three,  but he’s also an elite dribbler, driver, and passer. No one in the country can make the threes he’s capable of making, and as crazy as some of his attempts (and makes) are, he’ll be the first to tell you that he practices each and every one of them. Wofford can hang with anyone – even Kentucky, who they will play if they can get past a tough Seton Hall squad in what is sure to be one of the best match-ups of the first round.

 

 Seton Hall Pirates

The Pirates seem to find themselves in a familiar situation come March: they typically enter the season with a lot of talent and hype, post some early big wins, stumble a bit through conference play, but then go on a surging hot run during the final month of the season. Seton Hall’s impressive stretch through February and March also happened in the only conference  without a team with a losing record. They had huge wins against, Villanova, Marquette, and Kentucky, and might find themselves in a rematch vs. Big Blue nation if they can figure out a way to beat Wofford. This team will go as far as their star player Myles Powell takes them. He is one of the most exciting players in the country who plays with a combination of athleticism, finesse, and toughness that is unmatched. He a cold blooded shooter who can hit anywhere in the gym when he’s hot.

 

Georgia State Bulldogs

I might be influenced by a couple of biases when analyzing Georgia State (they’re former/current-Celtic RJ Hunter’s team, coached by his dad, and they were also my former company AdmitHub’s  first college partner). Regardless, this is undeniably a fun team to watch. The Bulldogs are the only team int eh country with 4 players who have made over 50 threes this season. They are balanced, can score in spurts, and are fundamentally sound enough to take away their opponent’s offensive strengths with lock-down defense.  

Vermont Catamounts

Vermont has been on the up and up for the past several seasons. They were supposed to be a legit Cinderella in last year’s tourney, but UMBC had other plans. This year’s squad held 9 opponents under 60 points in league play and also hung with the likes of Louisville and Kansas during their non-conference schedule. Star player Anthony Lamb might be the best-kept secret in all of college basketball. He has an uncanny ability to get to the right spot on the floor in a way that reminds me of Paul Pierce. One reason I’m high on the Catamounts this year is their free-throw shooting, which can be a huge factor in tournament player. Vermont is elite from the charity stripe from top to bottom, shooting 75% as a team. They don’t just convert at a high percentage, they also create a lot of opportunities, as they earn a visit to the line more than any other team in college basketball.

 

University of Central Florida

UCF is about as deep and experienced as they come. They have 10 upperclassmen on their team, including 5 seniors. Tacko Fall is the most unique player in college basketball. Standing at a towering 7’6’’, the dude doesn’t even need to jump to dunk the ball.

 

Liberty Flames

Watch out for the red-hot Flames. In many ways this team is a poor man’s Virginia: they boast an aggressive, pack-like defense and run a patient offense that waits for the right shot and spreads the ball equally. This is a team that won their conference championship against favored Lipscomb in Lipscomb’s own home floor. They have 11 true road wins, one of the highest totals in the country. Caleb Holmesley, Scott James, and Lovell Cabill lead this deep roster that is hungry to keep feeding the fire come tournament time.

 

Yale Bulldogs

Yale is peaking at the right time. They shot over 60% in the title game against Harvard, putting up 97 points, and enter the tourney almost 100% healthy, which is more than most teams can say for themselves. They also haven’t missed a free throw in three games. Led by future NBA first-rounder Miye Oni, this is a dangerous team for LSU to face.

New Mexico State Aggies

The Aggies are the epitome of team basketball. They are as balanced as they come, with no player averaging more than 11 points.  They share the rock and everyone has the green light. New Mexico State is top ten in the country in two-point field goal percentage but where they really will hurt you is their three-point shooting. They are a difficult team to game-plan against because you have to pick your poison with defending inside or out.

 

Old Dominion Monarchs

The Monarchs are among the best defensive teams in the nation, leading C-USA in scoring defense and rebounding margin. They play a slow, methodical style with the ball, but do have a pair of exciting players on offense. B.J. Smith and Ahmad Caver are seniors who lead the team in scoring and will look to inspire their teammates to a big win or two in the early rounds. This 14-seed won 26 games, including a 6-point victory over Syracuse and a 10-point win over VCU.