It’s Beginning to Look a Lot Like March

We may be months away from knowing who will win the Bachelor (my money is on Sarah C), but college basketball’s non-conference play has already started to sew the seeds of March.

Close games and stunning upsets have been the norm and not the outlier this season, and thanks to a boosted schedule with more competitive match-ups we’re seeing a more complete and compelling contrast of styles rare to November and December basketball. 

There are several forces at play here. One factor that no one should ignore is the record 87 college players who declared for the NBA draft last June with at least one year of eligibility remaining (you can make that 88 if you add future # 1 pick James Wiseman to the list, who recently withdrew from Memphis in preparation for the NBA draft). 

This void creates obvious consequences for the college game, mainly a lack of talent at the top. It should be no surprise, then, that parody has never been more abundant. Thus the inevitable paradox: when you have zero great teams, you’ll have plenty of great games. I’m not complaining one bit about this consequence. 

For the first time ever, no top ten team was undefeated through mid December. The KenPom statistics tell this story in greater detail.  Whereas the current top 4 teams in adjusted efficiency (Ohio State, Duke, Louisville, and Kansas) stand between +27 and +25, these metrics historically tend to swell into the +30s for teams at the top.  The difference between the 30th best team on KenPom this season and the 10th best team is a mere 5 points. 

Sprinkle in the pledge by programs of all shapes and sizes to assemble a legit non-conference schedule and you’re left with high drama from the first week of November on. The NCAA tournament is more competitive than ever and schools have caught on to the weight of non-conference, particularly neutral-site, wins. These are games that, despite being played months before teams assume their full identity, can and will have big implications on tournament seeding.

With the hopes of granting every team the opportunity to build their tournament resume early, the 2019-2020 NCAA Men’s basketball season tipped off a full 10+ days ahead of its predecessors. Here is but a taste of what has ensued:

The curse of # 1

A cautionary tale for any team aspiring to be ranked # 1 this season: it probably won’t last. The college basketball season is less than two months old and we’ve already seen the top-ranked team lose a historic five times. 

First it was Michigan State on the opening night of the season (albeit to fellow blue blood Kentucky). But then a week later, that same Kentucky squad lost at home in a shocker to mid-major Evansville coached by Kentucky alumnus, ex-Celtic (and lifetime love of Tommy Heinsohn) Walter McCarty. Check out this sweet locker room celebration. One of the many reasons why I…LOVE…WALTAH.

And then a week after that, 27.5-point favorite Duke bested this collapse by also losing at home in a buzzer beating OT thriller to Stephen F. Austin, cementing the largest upset by a Division I team in the last 15 college basketball seasons.

 

Louisville took the reigns after that and abruptly lost to unranked Texas Tech, and then it was Kansas’ turn last week to lose five days after claiming the # 1 spot on the road to Villanova. 

Top ranked teams aren’t just losing to other top ranked teams. In a mere two months of play, six of the pre-season Top 10 have lost to unranked teams.

Best of luck to the Gonzaga Bulldogs, who are poised to temporarily assume the number one spot.

Rule changes

While the lack of talent at the top has certainly contributed to PPG being down in college basketball, another factor worth considering is the 3-point line being moved back by about a foot and 4 inches to match international distance. This has already proven to have positive dividends in spacing the floor and creating a more NBA-style flow, which to me is a fair trade off for slightly fewer points. Another rule change I like has to do with flopping – players now receive 1 warning for flopping on offense or defense before the second call becomes a technical foul. I’m interested to see the implications of this come tournament time.

Teams that have dazzled

Amidst the chaos at the top, three teams have revealed themselves (at least in my eyes) as the best in college basketball – Gonzaga, Ohio State, and Oregon.

Gonzaga boasts the most aesthetically pleasing style. They are really fun to watch and feature 7 players averaging 10 PPG , which is something no other team comes close to being able to brag about. The bulk of the credit has to go to Zags coach Mark Few who it’s time to start calling one of the best in the business. Few’s team has reached the NCAA tournament in each of his 20 seasons as head coach. He’s turned a no-name mid major into the most consistent program in the country and after a year where he lost three players to the NBA draft his team is as talented and connected as ever.

What makes Gonzaga truly unique and hard to beat is their combination of pace and size. They have seven players 6’8” or taller who can all spread the floor and shoot. Filip Petrusev, Corey Kispert, and Killian Tillie are the players that best embody this identity. They are the team’s top 3 scorers and rebounders and all average an assist and steal per game. Petrusev is a force down low, gobbling up over 8 rebounds a game and 1.5 blocked shots while Kispert is one of the best true shooters in the game at 45% from three and 80% from the free-throw line. Tillie is a hybrid of the two, shooting close to 40% from three while also averaging 5 boards and one block. 

The Bulldogs’ early season resume speaks for itself: they have wins over Oregon, Washington, Arizona, and North Carolina and have the best adjusted offensive efficiency in the country. 

Ohio State is the most fundamentally sound team in college basketball. They are coached by Chris Holtman who formerly replaced Brad Stevens at Butler, so it should come as no surprise that this team is one of the most well-drilled and prepared squads in the country. It doesn’t hurt that they have a ton of talent to add to the equation.

Led by six upper-classmen, the Buckeyes are experienced and battle tested. They’ve been trending in the right direction making it to the second round of the tournament in each of the last two years, but this year they have much loftier goals. Forward Kaleb Wesson is a major reason for this. He is one of the most dominant bigmen in the nation and has all of the accolades for that position – strength, size, agility, shooting, vision, and defense. Wesson fills up the stat sheet each and every night, averaging 14 points, 9 rebounds, 2 assists, and 1.5 blocks. He also shoots 46% from three which is an incredible rate for someone his size. Simply put, he cannot be stopped, merely contained. But when you contain him his teammates will make you pay for it.

CJ Walker, Duane Washington Junior, and DJ Carton are all forces in the Buckeyes’ backcourt. They share point guard duties average a combined 9 assists per game, all scoring around 10 PPG and rarely turning the ball over. As a team Ohio State shoots 40% from three and has the best Adjusted Efficiency margin in the country. They’ve blown out the likes of Villanova, holding them to 51 points, North Carolina, holding them to 49 points, and Penn State, beating them by 32 points. They were also the clear better team against then 6th-ranked Kentucky last weekend in a neutral site match-up where they won by 6. 

Ohio State is as consistent as they come this year and is one of the only sure bets to remain near the top of the rankings throughout the entire season. Don’t sleep on them in March – they’re my early season pick to cut down the nets.

Oregon is the toughest team in the country to beat on any given night. They refuse to fold in the most dire of circumstances and have already come back from multiple 20-point deficits against tournament-bound teams. Down by 19 points with 15 minutes to play against Seton Hall, the Ducks mounted steady comeback and chipped away minute-by-minute to cut it to three with 4 minutes to go before ultimately winning by two. This sequence was quintessential Oregon basketball, featuring stingy defense (holding Seton Hall to 12 points in the final 14 minutes), balanced scoring (four players in double figures) and gutsy leadership by senior guard Payton Pritchard.

From a first glance Pritchard doesn’t immediately dazzle, but his keen understanding of the game and versatile skillset makes him worthy of Wooden Award consideration. He is a rare breed in today’s game – a four-year player with NBA talent whose wealth of experience makes him an elite player and teammate. He isn’t afraid of the moment and is poised to become a household name come tournament time. 

There’s no easy way to beat this team. Their starters shoot over 45% from three and average a combined 20 rebounds per game. They’ve already earned 5 wins over tournament bound teams and their only two losses have been nail-biters to Gonzaga and a fully healthy UNC team. 

Oregon has reached the Sweet 16 in 3 of the last 4 seasons, including Elite Eight and Final Four runs in ’16 and ’17. Last year, playing without their star Bol Bol, they were as dangerous as ever could have easily made it back to the Final Four had they not ran up against eventual champion Virginia. They may not be the sexiest pick to win it all this season but they have every right to be in the conversation. 

Biggest Disappointments

It hasn’t been all sunshine and rainbows for elite teams with high hopes this year. Michigan State, Florida, Wisconsin, and Providence are among those who have repeatedly fallen short of expectations.

The Spartans were the consensus number one heading into the season but yielded that title on the first night, and haven’t been much better since. Eight games into the season they were a mere 5-3 with ugly losses to then unranked Virginia Tech and at home to Duke in a 10-point game that really felt like 20. Even so, Michigan State has plenty of time to right ship. They still have arguably the best point guard in the country Cassius Winston, who has repeatedly shown he can lead them to new heights, but they’ll need veteran bigs Xavier Tillman and Aaron Henry to show more if they have any hope returning to the Final Four. 

Things haven’t gone any better for the Florida Gators either, who entered the season ranked 6th before quickly falling outside of the top 25 after losing twice in the first four games. The Gators had one of the best recruiting classes in the nation featuring the likes of Scottie Lewis and Tre Mann, and had high hopes coming into this season with the addition of senior transfer Kerry Blackshear. Without playing a minute in the SEC, Blackshear was rated pre-season conference player of the year but hasn’t quite lived up to the hype in his admittedly young stint with the team. Like Michigan State, this team still has a high ceiling and is poised to improve a lot in the coming months.

Sneaky Good

As fun as it is to split hairs with powerhouses and criticize teams who haven’t lived up to the hype, I satiate most of my college hoops addiction from schools flying under the radar. 

This year, some of the teams on this list include Dayton, Butler, Seton Hall, Iowa, St John’s, St. Mary’s, Xavier, and Baylor.

Dayton’s success is symbolic of this year’s inversive talent pool – they might have the # 1 draft pick on their team, Obi Toppin. Toppin is built to excel at every level – he’s a 6’9” 220 lb freak who can handle the ball, shoot, pass, and dominate the paint. He cemented his elite status earlier this year in a heavyweight match-up vs. Kansas’ Udoku Azubuike with 18 points, 9 rebounds, and 3 blocks. It was a thrilling overtime game that several experts have billed as the best game of the season thus far.

Dayton is far from a one-man show, though. They play 8 upperclassmen and have a balanced inside out attack where they can punish you on the boards, space the floor, and shoot 40% from three. The flyers have convincing wins over Virginia Tech, Saint Mary’s and Georgia, and their only two blemishes have been overtime losses vs. ranked opponents. They could climb to as high as a 2 or 3 seed come March.

Don’t sleep on my Butler Bulldogs, either. They may have lost two of the best college coaches in Brad Stevens and Chris Holtman, but third year coach LaVall Jordan is doing a bang up job in their stead by making it to the Sweet 16 in 2017 and second round in 2018. This year, his Bulldogs have climbed the rankings all the way to 12th in the country with impressive wins over Wofford, Florida, Purdue, and Minnesota. Their only defeat was a one-point loss on the road to now 6th ranked Baylor. 

Butler is deep, fundamentally sound, and, as has been their M.O. in the past, they make you play to their grind-it-out pace. Guard Kamar Baldwin belongs in the conversation for Wooden Player of the Year, averaging 15 points, 4 rebounds, 3 assists, 1 steal, and shooting a bonkers 95% from the free throw line.

The last sneaky good team I’ll rave about is Baylor. Baylor is one of the more unique teams in college basketball this season as they start a three-headed monster combo of guards in Jared Butler, MaCio Teague, and Davion Mitchell. Jared Butler is another play worthy of Wooden consideration, averaging 18 points, 3 rebounds, 3 assists, and 3 steals. He has been money for them in crunch time and can flat out take over games.

To make matters worse for their opponents, Baylor also has tremendous guard depth on their bench, including sharper-shooter Devonte Bandoo and defensive hawk Mark Vital. All of their guards are excellent defenders for that matter, making it very difficult to dictate pace and for opponents to get in to their sets. Combine this strength with inside threats like Freddie Gillespie who gobbles up close to 10 rebounds a game and you’ve got an experienced squad that is tough to beat on any given night.

Cinderella Watch

This season is on all accounts shaping up to be the Year of the Cinderella. Based on how things have gone in November and December, it wouldn’t be a shock to even see multiple true Cinderellas make it all the way to the Final Four and maybe even win it all. 

Some of this year’s most likely contestants include Vermont, Furman, DePaul, Utah State, East Tennessee State, Liberty, and Richmond.

I’ve been following Vermont’s rise for years. They were poised to break into the national spotlight two seasons ago but UMBC had the last laugh thanks to this buzzer beater in the conference championship game. We all know how things turned out for the Golden Retrievers against Virginia. 

Last year, the Catamounts got their revenge and ultimately won the America East conference to earn a birth to the NCAA tournament as a 13-seed. They’ve got a legit shot at besting this mark to earn as high as an 11-seed this year.

Forward Anthony Lamb has been the keystone to their sustained success. He’s a 6’6” 230 lb bulldozer who just so happens to also be the squad’s best perimeter shooter. Lamb can do it all – pull-up from three, drive, pass, rebound, and post up. He is nearly impossible to guard when he’s playing downhill and akin to some of the other best players in the country, he’s at his best when it matters most. Take a look at some of these clutch shots he made earlier this season in UVM’s narrow loss at Virginia, where Lamb scored 25 second half points in Carsen Edwards-like frequency:

Lamb is the real deal, and so is the rest of his team. Vermont is experienced and battle-tested. They shut opponents down with grueling defense and can win in a variety of ways – they don’t rely too heavily on threes and run a patient offense that moves the ball around until it can pinpoint the soft spot in the defense. They are a poor man’s Virginia, but they might make some betters rich come tournament time.

Every year I pick one mid-major team to go all in on in March – two years ago it was Loyola-Chicago (which I was super right about) and last year it was Buffalo (which I was super wrong about). This year, my hopes and dreams hang in the balance with Furman.

Furman is another team on the up and up. They have a +700 winning percentage over the past three seasons. Last year they beat two former Final Four Teams, including defending champion Villanova, and this year they forced overtime on the road against Auburn, another former Final Four squad. Most of this game as a blow out in Furman’s favor, and had the game been played on a neutral court it probably would have remained such.

Furman is a defensive force – they smother opponents the minute they get past half court and it’s really tough to get anything going against them. They are hands down the best team in college basketball at drawing charges, which possess unique challenges when game-planning against them. You can’t meet their aggression with aggression because the minute you lose control, it’s a turnover. On the flip side, it’s hard to stay patient against them because they will speed you up anyways. 

Not to be taken lightly is fellow SoCon squad East Tennessee State. ETSU is as experienced and proven as a mid-major gets – they’ve earned 22 true road wins since the start of the 2017-2018 season, which is 4th most in D-1. They lost narrowly to Kansas earlier this year and recently crushed an underrated LSU team in Baton Rouge. If you haven’t seen their star point guard Bo Hodges in action, you’re in for a treat.

Arguably the most talented Cinderella this season has to be the Aggies of Utah State. Fresh off of a 28 win season, now second-year coach Craig Smith has high hopes for his deep and talented squad. Utah state is one of the best passing teams in the country and simply put they are beautiful to watch. They spread the ball evenly across ten players and have a dominant inside-out threat of point guard Sam Merrill and center Neemias Queta. 

 

Setting the Stage for Conference Play

Finals are done, winter break is mid session, and the stage is now set for college basketball’s next chapter – conference play.

Conference play is a different beast than what we’ve seen the past couple of months. Unlike November and December, the vast majority of games will now be, as you guessed it, between teams in the same conference. This bodes well for power conference teams who will have the chance to improve their tournament resume on a nightly basis, but leaves a slim margin for error in the non-power conferences where the aforementioned Cinderellas just might need to run the table to preserve hopes of an at large bid.

The real season starts now – until it begins again in March.