March Madness is a jigsaw puzzle and no one holds all of its pieces. There has never been a perfect bracket (the odds of doing so are around 1 in 9.2 quintillion) and the closest recorded pursuit of perfection was in 2019 when a Columbus, Ohio native went 49 for 49 before his bracket busted in the Sweet Sixteen (meanwhile, last years’ final perfect bracket only made it to Day 2). Here’s what the record breaker looked like before it all came crashing down:

My bracket at the time had a lot more red than green… but it still finished in the 99th percentile on ESPN.com thanks to an epic championship run from the best looking coach in the sport. The truth is, anyone and their grandma can nail some wonky early round picks. It’s a lot harder to do it consistently for the games that really count – and even then, luck is driving the bus more often than skill. Right when you think the tournament is trending in one direction, it famously forks the other way.

There probably never will be a perfect bracket and that’s about the most perfect ending we could ask for. Chasing unattainable perfection is an intrinsically human tendency, but it’s blind hope – not blind determination – that keeps us pushing that rock up a hill. There is no more hopeful feeling than noon eastern on the first Thursday of the tournament. For a fluttering moment in the middle of March, hope springs eternal. Every bracket is perfect. No one from Columbus, Ohio is pwning us. And that feels nice.

It’s the inconsistency that makes college basketball great, the flaws that make it flawless. No player or team is immune to the moment, the crowd, or the match-up. But when you can’t trust anyone, you can kind of trust…everyone. You weren’t (entirely) crazy if you correctly picked Oregon State to the Elite Eight last year, or Loyola Chicago to the Final Four in 2019 (humble brag), or UMBC over Virginia the year before that…actually you were definitely crazy for that one. Nothing is immune to an imperfect ending – except for the tournament itself.

Season Recap

Last year we witnessed the most unique season in college basketball history – most venues were crowd-less, there were what felt like a million cancellations and Covid pauses, and for the first time in history the tournament was held entirely in and around one city (Indianapolis).

This season was also unlike any other for a few underlying reasons:

Reason 1: The NCAA granted every Division 1 player an extra year of eligibility, which allowed for some super seniors – and a few super super seniors – to lace ’em up for one last hurrah. As a result there were quite a few 23- and 24-year-olds on active rosters this year…and even a handful of 25-year-olds. The product on the floor undeniably benefited from this, something I expect to carry over to the ensuing weeks. Experience wins in March.

Reason 2: Another Covid change that sent ripple effects across every roster was the elimination of the redshirt year for first year transfers. In other words, players could immediately play the next season rather than having to sit out for a year, which led to a lot of big names hitting the open market. Suddenly it was NBA free agency at the collegiate level. In an era where one-and-dones dominate the landscape of big name brands, teams like Kentucky loaded up with upperclassmen transfers.

Reason 3: Name, Image, and Likeness – or NIL for short – finally unlocked a professional avenue that student-athletes should have had the luxury of legally benefiting from a long time ago. NIL will also incentivize players to stay another year in college basketball instead of declaring for the draft or hitting international waters. Players like Drew Timme of Gonzaga could conceivably run it back as seniors next year and earn a better wage than they would in any professional league.

Reason 4: Full capacity stadiums. Until 2020 this was a given, but the absence of fans in the stands last year really affected the sport as a whole. Home court advantage has a greater impact in college basketball than in any other collegiate or professional sport, and it was such a joy having this back in full force this season. You best believe it will dictate some shocking results in the tournament.

Trends, Story Arcs, and Tid Bits

One officiating trend that sticks out: foul calls were at an all-time low this season. It’s hard to imagine this won’t continue into March as historically, refs are more likely to swallow the whistle during big moments and let ’em play.

I guess it’s now cool for coaches to voluntarily leave big programs mid season? This happened with Mark Turgeon at Maryland as well as Chris Mack at Louisville after not really being a thing in the past. You can’t help but wonder which under performing coach at a high profile program might give themselves the axe in the midst of next year.

A handful of former assistant coaches, though, are now thriving in their first year as head coaches. Tommy Lloyd left Gonzaga to take the Arizona gig and leads his Wildcats into the tourney as a 1 seed. Mark Adams spent an eternity playing second fiddle to Chris Beard before sliding into the head role at Texas Tech following Beard’s departure to rival Texas. Now it’s the Red Raiders, not the Longhorns, who have a legitimate shot at a Final Four – and big bad Texas is very much at risk of losing in the first round. Hubert Davis also filled enormous shoes after Roy Williams announced his retirement in the off-season, and after a bumpy start Davis elevated the Tar Heels to Top 25 status at the end of the regular season.

Most notably for Davis and UNC, the Tarheels spoiled Mike Krzyzewski’s final home game at Cameron Indoor Stadium with a surprising and kind of hilarious upset. Duke students literally had to camp out for months to get a good seat and some tickets went for up $150,000 a pop…a priceless image for anyone who isn’t a Dukie.

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— Kendall Baker (@kendallbaker) March 6, 2022

Try this one on for size: on February 22nd (2/22/22), Iowa’s Pat McCaffrey (#22) played exactly 22 minutes and 22 seconds…and finished the game shooting 22 percent from the field!

How ripe is this year’s tournament for some good old fashioned parity? Look no further than this telling occurrence: for the first time ever, 7 of the top 10 ranked teams lost on the same day (February 26th). Better yet, all of the top six made this list.

Based on what we’ve seen this season we’re also due for some epic buzzer beaters. Here are a few that stole my heart:

Ron Harper Jr. stuns #1 Purdue:

Seminoles stick it to Hoos on a catch and heave:

Another Florida team stuns another Virginia team:

I’ve always been a big Charlie Moore fan from his days at DePaul to his times as the Mad Fisherman on NESN.

And then in the conference tournaments we had this!

Setting the Stage for the Big Dance

I have trust issues with every team in the tournament this year, from Auburn’s sporadic late game guard play to Purdue’s porous defense. On the other hand, I’m really impressed by the assembly of talent and experience on a long list of teams. Thus, the 2022 NCAA tournament promises to be a shit show for my head and my heart. Here are this year’s contenders, pretenders, Cinderellas, and spoilers.

The Contenders

Contender – /kənˈtendər/ – A team seeded 1-5 with the best chance at a Final Four.

Gonzaga

The Zags find themselves in familiar territory: the #1 overall seed in the tournament. If you’ve been picking Gonzaga to win it all every year for the last decade, this may finally be your year – even though that’s what you probably kept hearing last year.

Last season the Bulldogs went a perfect 31-0 before getting their brains beat in by a sneaky historically great Baylor team in the finals. What’s truly cray cray is that this year’s team might actually be…better. Potential #1 draft pick Chet Holmgren joined pre-season player of the year Drew Timme to form a freakishly talented and complimentary front court. Andrew Nemhard returns as one of the elite point guards in the nation and is exactly the type of scoring floor general needed in a Championship run. Players like Julian Strawther, Anton Watson, and Rasir Bolton boast dynamic wing scoring and have all made huge strides following the departures of Corey Kispert, Jalen Suggs, and Joel Ayayi. Freshmen like Hunter Salis and Nolan Hickman off the bench are among other reasons why this roster has improved each and every month since November and grown into a team that can withstand anyone’s best shot.

Gonzaga may not have started the season as good as its predecessor, but it enters March Madness with perhaps its best chance at cutting down the nets. The defensive side of the ball separates this year’s Zags from last year’s and it should come as no surprise that Chet Holmgren is a big reason why. Whatever shots Holmgren doesn’t block, he alters in some fashion and his ability to stretch the floor on offense with lethal perimeter shooting is a game changer.

Arizona

Arizona might be the best constructed team in the country. That’s saying something considering their point guard Kerr Kriisa (named after Steve Kerr) has a bipolar tendency to trade off between sensational play and frenetic mistakes. The good news for Zona? Kriisa suffered an ankle injury in the Pac 12 tournament and the Wildcats ended up winning it without him. The bad news for Zona? Kriisa’s injury will spill into NCAA tournament play when for better or for worse they’ll be counting on him.

The Wildcats’ roster is impressively global – they have a whopping eight international players who contribute to deep, versatile line ups (although they are statistically the least experienced team in the tournament). They are a fun team to watch, playing at a fast pace and averaging the most assists per game in the country. Guard Bendict Mathurin is an undeniable NBA talent and big men Azuolas Tubelis and Christian Koloko are a transition nightmare for opponents. Arizona has a decent draw in their bracket. First year coach Tommy Lloyd could face his former team Gonzaga in the title game. Wouldn’t that be something.

Kentucky

This is not your uncle’s Kentucky roster of one-and-done divas. For the first time in a while, Calipari’s squad is veteran laden and transfer-led. The three transfer names to know are Kellan Grady, Sahvir Wheeler, and Oscar Tshiebwe. Grady shoots the lights out, Wheeler controls the game at the point, and Tshiebwe rebounds at will. Tshiebwe averaged over 15 rebounds a game this season (fifteen!) along with 17 points and is the main reason why Kentucky could win it all. Throw in freshman star guard TyTy Washington along with upperclassmen Davion Mintz, Jacob Toppin (Obi Toppin’s brother) and Keion Brooks and you’ve got one hell of a team.

This is a balanced attack that features five double digit scorers. They are consistently solid on defense and have put up 90 on more than a few formidable opponents. The Wildcats obliterated Kansas on their home court, outplayed Auburn at Auburn, and scored 107 points on a Tennessee squad that’s supposed to be one of the better defenses in the country.

Calipari has famously said that his best teams never have a bad practice all season – he recently confirmed this group still hasn’t had a stinker. If they stay healthy, no one is better than Kentucky.

Kansas

The Jayhawks are a deep and experienced group. They play nine upperclassmen including veteran seniors Ochai Agbaji, Mitch Lightfoot, and David McCormack. Wing scorers Christian Braun and Jalen Wilson are a human highlight reel and they haven’t even relied on Big 12 Pre-Season Player of the Year Remy Martin who transferred from Arizona State. Fresh off a Big 12 Tournament title with a fully healthy Martin, Kansas is poised to hit another level come tournament time. They won’t lose anytime soon.

Auburn

Hard to bet against Bruce Pearl in March, especially when his team has looked so elite at times this season. Their .500 record over the past month could be cause for concern, but if they can roll off a couple of huge wins in the first two rounds of the tournament then they’ll enter the Sweet Sixteen humming. Auburn’s ten man rotation (!) features one of the most efficient superstars in the game in Jabari Smith. The 6’11” lottery pick is smooth as a baby’s bottom, shooting 42% from three and 82% from the line, and averaging 17 points without needing a ton of touches.

The Tigers are one of the hardest teams to inbound the ball on and one of the toughest to score inside against thanks to rim protector Walker Kessler whom Bruce Pearl calls “the best player in the country in the air.” Keep an eye on sophomore guard KD Johnson (featured in the article’s cover photo) who plays as fiercely as he looks.

Illinois

Imagine you are coaching a team that has the best guard-center duo in the country complimented by a veteran trio of shifty shooters. That’s what Brad Underwood inherited this year following a season that the Fighting Illini earned a 1 seed. It didn’t end well for them in March thanks to The Great Kameron Krutwig and his Loyola-Chicago Ramblers – a heartbreaking end to phenom Ayo Dosunmu’s collegiate career, but he’s doing just fine in The League.

Illinois’ ceiling skyrocketed when star big man Kofi Cockburn (lol) withdrew his name from the NBA draft and returned for his junior season. Cockburn is a top 5 interior talent who imposes his force on both ends of the floor. They also returned sophomore stud Andre Curbelo whom many dubbed the top rated point guard in the pre-season. Curbelo spent half of this season battling injuries which opened up a path for seniors Trent Frazier, Alfonso Plummer, and Da’Monte WIlliams to carry the torch in the backcourt. Frazier in particular seems poised to be that guy in March – he possesses an uncanny ability to split the defense and drive to the basket at will.

Nobody is really talking about these guys going into the first weekend of the tournament, but we shouldn’t be surprised if we’re still discussing them in a couple of weeks. Illinois is more of a 2 seed trapped in a 4 seed’s body. They should remain standing leading into a Sweet Sixteen rematch with Arizona, whom they narrowly lost to while Curbelo was out.

Arkansas

The Razorbacks have arguably the most impressive resume in the nation from January 1st on. The hogs were at one point winners of 14 of 15, including a victory over then #1 ranked Auburn. JD Notae is the heart and soul of Eric Musselman’s squad. He is an elite two way player with the ability to score 40 and shut down the best opposing scorer on any given night. The Razorbacks can win in a variety of ways and have the kind of build that translates well to the tournament. They reached the Elite Eight last year and are set on breaking through to the Final Four.

UCLA

UCLA reached the Final Four last year and was an iconic overtime buzzer beater away from a championship game birth. Mic Cronin returns nearly every important piece from last season’s First Four to Final Four run, and players like Johnny Juzang, Jamie Jacquez Jr, and Tyger Campbell will be tough to count out in March. The Bruins rely on a lot of long twos which doesn’t sound like the most prudent game plan in a single elimination tournament, but hey, they did it once and there’s no reason why, a year later with the same DNA, they couldn’t do it again. UCLA is balanced enough on offense and defense to overachieve once again this season.

Villanova

Nova only plays seven guys, but they can all ball. Six of those players average at least nine points per game, and one of them just happens to be the best point guard in the country. Jay Wright called Collin Gillespie the best leader he’s ever coached. Gillespie is the reason why Nova rarely turns the ball over and competes with poise for 40 minutes a night. The Wildcats also eclipsed the all-time free throw percentage record this season so yeah, best of luck beating these guys in March Madness. They certainly won’t beat themselves.

The Pretenders

Pretender – /prəˈtendər/ – A team seeded 1-5 with the best chance of an early exit.

Baylor

Baylor plays Norfolk State for the first time since they were upset in the 2012 tourney. They won’t lose to them again, but I’m not convinced the defending champs survive until the Final Four. The Bears were my pick from December onward last season and they didn’t disappoint, but this is a very different roster that enters the tournament missing two of its most important pieces. Players like Jeremy Sochan (who sports some dope Dennis Rodman hair-dos), James Akinjo, and Matthew Mayer will be a treat to watch, as will their elite defense. Baylor is probably too solid to lose before the Sweet Sixteen but faces a difficult path to the Final Four with teams like UCLA, Purdue or Kentucky waiting in the wings.

Purdue

Purdue might be my favorite team to watch this year but they can’t play D to save their lives. They average 80 points a game but usually give up 70, which will leave a razor thin margin for error in the tournament. The Boilermakers have three game-chargers on their squad – Jaden Ivey, Zach Edy, and Trevion Williams. Ivey will steal the show for as long as they remain alive, as he is a unique NBA talent who will likely get drafted in the top five. Ivey flies through the lane and boasts a wet perimeter game.

Coach Matt Painter employs a fascinating strategy with his dual centers – he splits Edy and Williams’ playing time evenly and never has them on the court at the same time. Just how good are they as a collective starting center? Zach Edy leads the nation in player efficiency and Trevion Williams is the best passing big man in the country.

This is a team that outscored opponents by the largest free throw margin in the nation. There’s a lot to like, especially when you tack on sharp shooting guard Sasha Stefanovic who has a habit of not missing for long stretches. But you can’t trust a team like this to make it far when no team with as poor of a defensive efficiency rating as theirs has ever won it all.

Tennessee

Tennessee beats up on teams as long as they’re playing at home or in the SEC tournament. On the road this season they were a shadow of themselves. They lost to nearly every good team they played in true road games with their lone win coming in Chapel Hill. Don’t get me wrong, the Vols are solid, and they come in hot as the winners of their conference tournament. I just think they might be a bit of a mirage right now. Tennessee ranks 130th offensively at 72 points per game, which won’t cut it if they find themselves in a shootout. Still, Santiago Vesvoci is forever my dawg.

Duke

Duke currently starts 4 NBA first round draft picks. But in a year where teams are older than ever, experience trumps youth. The Blue Devils play up and down to their opponents, which is worrisome for the early rounds but if they can survive the first weekend they’ll be a tough out from the Sweet Sixteen on. After all, they did beat Gonzaga in Seattle earlier this season. Top Five pick Paul Banchero is a treat to behold but for a team as young as they are carrying the burden of Coach K’s final season, I’m worried the moment might be too big.

Wisconsin

The Badgers don’t beat themselves and they have one of the front runners for National Player of the Year in Johnny Davis. So that’s good. But they’ve also won an absurd amount of close games which on one hand is impressive but on the other tells me they’re playing with fire. The fact that they might not be able to pull away from lesser opponents and will therefore keep them in the game deep into the second half is a worrisome omen that I can’t overlook. And even if they do survive to the Sweet Sixteen, they’ll have a bad match up against Auburn.

Providence

Providence measured as the luckiest team on KenPom this season. Akin to Wisconsin, they win a ton of close games so the same concerns apply. Still, you’ve got to hand it to Ed Cooley for turning a team picked to finish seventh in the Big East into a 4 Seed for the tournament. The Friars are gritty and experienced, but they’re in for an uphill battle when they’ll play arguably the most dangerous Cinderella on Thursday.

Houston

Houston lost its two best players before Christmas but still managed to finish with a 29-5 record. More proof that Kelvin Sampson measures as one of the top coaches in the sport year after year. But they won in one of the weakest American Athletic Conferences in league history and lost multiple times to the only other tournament team in its conference. Similar to last year’s Final Four squad, the Cougars turn every game into a defensive bludgering and win every battle on the boards, but they simply lack enough talent needed to win in March.

Texas Tech

The Red Raiders are dominant on defense and average on offense – not too dissimilar from Houston. I’m concerned that they don’t have enough play-making options when they need a bucket in late game situations, so despite their nationally best defense I can’t trust them to win more than a couple of games.

The Cinderellas

Cinderella – /sin·dr·eh·luh/ – A mid-major team seeded 7+ with the best chance at a Sweet Sixteen run

Murray State

Murray State means business. They enter the tournament on a 20 game winning streak and in most of those games the Racers straight beat the pants off their opponents. Ja Morrant’s alma matter is once again one of the most fun teams to watch. This is a team with high octane energy on both the offensive and defensive end – they swarm you on D and are dangerous on the fast break. Hard to bet against such a complete and multi talented squad. Look for Tevin Brown, KJ Williams, and Juice Hill to make names for themselves in this tournament and put up a real fight against Kentucky in the second round.

South Dakota State

These Bunnies are a dangerous bunch. It’s hard to beat hot perimeter shooting in the tournament and South Dakota State ranked as the best shooting team in the country this season. They are poised to pick defenses apart and can beat just about anyone by simply outscoring their opponent. This is a really interesting team to watch – they pass almost as well as they shoot but play a deliberately slower Virginia-esque pace. Everyone makes their free throws and they feature a handful of players capable of stealing the moment. Bench player Luke Apple dropped 41 on Oral Roberts in the final week of the regular season and forward Douglas Wilson finished second in the country in fouls drawn. The Jackrabbits went undefeated in conference regular season and tournament play and enter the tournament with 30 wins.

San Francisco

The Dons have an excellent roster. They shoot well from the perimeter, take care of the ball, and start three graduates. Jamaree Bouyea is the name to know. He’s got the biggest heart on a team full of heart.

Davidson

Davidson outplayed just about everyone they matched up with this year, which is all the more impressive when you examine the strength of the Atlantic Ten conference. Guard Hyunjung Lee owns the best career three point percentage in program history (and remember, Steph Curry went here!). The Wildcats appear to be severely under-seeded out of the gate and should be considered a toss up vs. 7-seed Michigan State.

Boise State

No way this team should be an 8 seed. The Broncos won the Mountain West regular season AND conference tournament, measuring superior to the likes of Colorado State, San Diego State, and Wyoming – all tournament teams. This team is stout on defense and balanced on offense. Seniors Abu Kijab and Marcus Shaver Jr aren’t afraid of the moment and are capable of carrying the Broncos over Memphis and competing with Gonzaga.

UAB

Watch out for the Blazers. They play fast and physical and enter the tournament as the 7th best scoring offense. Four players average double figures including Jordan Walker (20 ppg) and Quan Jackson (12 points, 6 rebounds and 2.5 steals). UAB has been trending in the right direction for a few years and they are ripe to break through this weekend.

Colorado State

My preseason darling, the CSU Rams are a fun bunch that features one of the most unique stars in the country. David Roddy is a 6’5″ 250 pound bowling ball that averages 20 points, 7 rebounds, and 3 assists while shooting 45% from three. Pair that with talented guards like Isaiah Stevens and John Tonye and you’ve got yourself a lethal inside-outside attack. Colorado State has a decent path to the Sweet Sixteen if they play up to their potential.

Vermont

The Catamounts shoot the lights out, start five seniors, and control the tempo of every game. They absolutely steamrolled UMBC in the America East finals 82-43. They’re really good. Period, end of sentence.

The Spoilers

Spoiler – /spoy·lr/ – A high-major team seeded 6+ with the best chance at a Sweet Sixteen run

Miami

Miami’s three-headed monster of Charlie Moore, Isaiah Wong, and Kameron McGusty makes them a tough out. They are coached by a tournament legend and play with the right kind of composure for March. After all, they have 3 6-year starters on their roster. The Hurricanes beat Duke at Duke and narrowly lost to them in the ACC tournament. Duke is a 2-seed and Miami is clearly much better than most 10s as most of their losses were extremely close finishes.

Alabama

At their worst, Alabama can lose to anyone including their first round match-up against 11 seeded Rutgers/Indiana but at their best the Crimson Tide can win the whole dang thang. The Tide might have the best backcourt duo in the country in Jaden Sheckleford and Jahvon Quinnerly. Plus, JD Davison has sweet hair and is always due for a mesmerizing slam. Like Duke, Alabama plays up and down to their competition. They’ve beaten the likes of Gonzaga, Houston, Tennessee, and Baylor but also lost to lowly Missouri. Alabama could be trouble for a team like Texas Tech if they can escape a first round upset.

Ohio State

E.J. Liddell is one of the top big men in the country for a team that earned a 2 seed in last year’s tournament and returned 12 players. The Buckeyes were as steady as they come for most of the season but enter the tournament on a bit of a downswing. Nevertheless, they are loaded with talent and experience and are well-coached, which are three of the tastiest ingredients in March.

Memphis

Two months ago Memphis was dead and buried, but today they are a win away from matching up with Gonzaga in the 2nd round. How did this happen? Well, it’s mostly because freshman phenom Emoni Bates stopped playing in their games. Memphis is a staggering 10 and 2 since January 27 (Bates’ last game) and has been looking more like a four or five seed in that stretch. Anything can happen with Penny Hardaway’s Tigers this tournament as long as they remain without their pre-season star.